Results of load-forecast models differ
Journal Article
·
· Electr. World; (United States)
OSTI ID:6164313
In 1977, Portland General Electric Company used two distinctly different forecasting methods to obtain an accurate picture of future load growth and compared the results. One method used an econometric modeling technique; the other, termed company composite, was based on end-use analysis, direct field input, and a forecast of economic activity in the commercial and industrial sectors. Both methods were used to produce electric energy sales projections for the forecast period. In addition, the econometric model was used in conjunction with a Delphi/Monte Carlo approach to estimate the uncertainties associated with the projections. After the results were compared, PGE selected the company-composite forecast as most representative of the company's anticipations regarding electricity sales growth. (MCW)
- OSTI ID:
- 6164313
- Journal Information:
- Electr. World; (United States), Journal Name: Electr. World; (United States) Vol. 190:12; ISSN ELWOA
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
296000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power
COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS
CONSUMPTION RATES
DELPHI METHOD
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMICS
ELECTRIC POWER
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
FORECASTING
GROWTH
MONTE CARLO METHOD
PEAK-LOAD PRICING
POWER
POWER GENERATION
PRICES
PUBLIC UTILITIES
TRADE
296000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power
COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS
CONSUMPTION RATES
DELPHI METHOD
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMICS
ELECTRIC POWER
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
FORECASTING
GROWTH
MONTE CARLO METHOD
PEAK-LOAD PRICING
POWER
POWER GENERATION
PRICES
PUBLIC UTILITIES
TRADE