Models for forecasting energy use in the US farm sector. Volume 2. Final report

Technical Report · Wed Jul 01 04:00:00 EDT 1981

OSTI ID:6130682

Christensen, L R

Econometric models are developed and estimated for the purpose of forecasting electricity and petroleum demand in US agriculture. A structural approach is pursued which takes account of the fact that the quantity demanded of any one input is a decision made in conjunction with other input decisions. Seven different functional forms of varying degrees of complexity are specified for the structural cost function, which describes the cost of production as a function of the level of output and factor prices. Demand for materials (all purchased inputs) are derived from these models. A separate model breaks this demand up into demand for the four components of materials. This model is used to produce forecasts of electricity and petroleum in a stepwise manner. Five different functional forms are specified for this submodel. The seven functional forms of the basic model and the five functional forms of the submodel are evaluated, and preferred models selected. Forecasts are generated of the exogenous variables in the model using the Wharton annual forecasting model of the US economy. In order to make such forecasts a linkage model is developed, linking the variables of the Wharton model to the exogenous variables of the farm sector model. Forecasts from the Wharton model are fed into the linkage model to derive forecasts for the exogenous variables. The forecasts of the exogenous variables are fed into the farm sector model to derive forecasts for electricity and petroleum purchases. The different functional forms of the farm sector model are used to derive alternative estimates of energy purchases. These different estimates are compared and a preferred set of estimates chosen. These preferred forecasts show the quantity of electricity purchased growing at a rate of just over 6% between now and the year 2000 while the quantity of petroleum declines at a rate of over 4%.

• Research Organization: Christensen (Laurits R.) Associates, Inc., Madison, WI (USA)
• OSTI ID: 6130682
• Report Number(s): EPRI-EA-1956-Vol.2
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290100 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Energy Analysis & Modeling
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320301* -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization-- Industrial & Agricultural Processes-- Energy Sources
AGRICULTURE
COST
DEMAND
DEMAND FACTORS
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMICS
ELECTRIC POWER
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY MODELS
ENERGY SOURCES
FARMS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
INDUSTRY
NORTH AMERICA
PETROLEUM
POWER
PRODUCTION
USA