Design of a multiregional economic model for forecasting electricity consumption and peak load. Final report

Technical Report · Fri Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1982

OSTI ID:5206291

Adams, F G; McCarthy, M D; Hill, J

The design of a general multiregional econometric model of the USA and the design of a regional electricity consumption and demand submodel are presented. The multiregional econometric model is intended to provide forecasts of regional population, economic activity by industrial sector, regional wages, and incomes. The electricity submodel is designed to take forecasts of such general economic indicators (together with forecasts of relative electricity and othe energy costs) and to produce forecasts of electricity (kWh) consumption by customer category and forecasts of peak load. While the ultimate purpose of the present effort is regional electricity forecasting, it is clear that the multiregional econometric model which supports the electricity submodel has a great many other uses. The multiregional econometric model design presented in the document represents a natural extension to the regional level of the Wharton Long-Term Annual and Industry Forecasting Model of the USA. The parts of that model that lend themselves to regional disaggregation (employment and wages, for example) are disaggregated. Aggregate US forecasts for such variables are determined by adding up from the bottom. This bottom-up design marks a major departure from earlier regional efforts. In addition to providing a description of the theoretical design of the model, this document provides an extensive review and evaluation of the economic and electricity-energy database needed for its construction.

• Research Organization: Wharton (E.F.A.), Inc., Philadelphia, PA (USA)
• OSTI ID: 5206291
• Report Number(s): EPRI-EA-2232; ON: DE82902071
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290200 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Economics & Sociology
296000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ECONOMICS
ELECTRIC POWER
FORECASTING
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
NORTH AMERICA
PEAK LOAD
POWER
POWER DEMAND
REGIONAL ANALYSIS
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
USA