Energy use and forecasting in Wisconsin manufacturing industries

Thesis/Dissertation · Thu Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1987

OSTI ID:5898616

Talmo, D

The cost of manufacturing production is specified as a function of factor input prices and output in a transendental-logarithmic (translog) form. A maximum-likelihood procedure is used to estimate the cost function in eight, two-digit SIC manufacturing industries in Wisconsin. Fuel and factor demands are modeled separately in a two-stage procedure. In particular, the specifications of Fuss (1977) and Jorgenson (1983) which address the fuel component in detail are estimated. The first model is characterized by a nonhomogeneous cost function, while the second assumes homogeneity and allows technological change to bias the factor demands unequally. The forecasting procedure emphasizes the use of estimated equations in projecting the dependent variables instead of estimated demand elasticities. Scenario analyses are presented based on the forecaster's judgment of the likelihood of various exogenous trends. The model was able to explain manufacturing cost and input shares well. In predicting individual fuel demands, the explanatory power of the model depended significantly on which fuel was considered. Errors in electricity and natural gas demands were small compared to coal and petroleum.

• Research Organization: Wisconsin Univ., Madison (USA)
• OSTI ID: 5898616
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
298000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Consumption & Utilization
DEMAND
DEMAND FACTORS
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY EXPENSES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
FEDERAL REGION V
FORECASTING
FUEL SUPPLIES
MANUFACTURING
MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD FIT
NORTH AMERICA
NUMERICAL SOLUTION
TECHNOLOGY IMPACTS
USA
WISCONSIN