International energy assessment. Analysis report: AR/IA/79-27

Technical Report · Tue May 01 04:00:00 EDT 1979

OSTI ID:6109468

Kilgore, W C

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the international energy situation between now and the year 1995 and includes the latest EIA forecasts of energy supply and demand for each region of the world. Also included are estimates of future world oil prices and a sensitivity analysis of the critical factors affecting those prices. The analysis projects that world energy consumption will rise at a rate of between 2.8 and 3.9% per year, over the forecast period, while the demand for petroleum is expected to grow at a rate of 2.0 to 3.5% per year. This growth in consumption is projected to occur during a period in which world economic activity is increasing at the rate of 3.8 to 4.6% per year, such that the estimated ratio of world energy growth to economic growth falls from its historic 1960--1976 ratio of 0.94, to a ratio of 0.71 to 0.85 over the 1976--1995 period. World oil prices are found to be highly uncertain with real prices by 1995 ranging between $16.50 and $31.50 per barrel across five projection series. The baseline price projections given in this paper assume that Iran's oil production returns to about 4 million barrels per day by the third quarter of 1979 and that current surcharges will be removed within the next year. The uncertainty on prices is shown to be even greater when one assumes either, more adverse pricing behavior on the part of OPEC, or, continued supply disturbnces such as those recently experienced in Iran. The principal tools used in the analysis are the International Energy Evaluation System (IEES) and the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model.

• Research Organization: Department of Energy, Washington, DC (USA). Energy Information Administration
• OSTI ID: 6109468
• Report Number(s): DOE/EIA-0184/1
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
ASIA
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
EVALUATION
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
IRAN
MARKET
MIDDLE EAST
OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES
OPEC
PETROLEUM
PRICES
SIMULATION