World oil production. [Demand to overshadow supplies before year 2000]

Journal Article · Wed Mar 01 04:00:00 EST 1978 · Sci. Am.; (United States)

OSTI ID:5073367

Flower, A R

The supply of oil will fail to meet increasing demand before the year 2000. As oil production inevitably levels off and then falls, alternative fuels will have to meet the demand for energy, which will continue to grow in the face of even vigorous attempts at conservation. The oil-importing countries have perhaps as few as five years or perhaps as many as 20 in which to accomplish a transition from dependence on oil to greater reliance on other fossil fuels, on nuclear energy and eventually on renewable energy sources. Because large investments and long lead times are required for developing new energy resources the effort must begin immediately. These are among the major conclusions of a two-year international study, the Workshop on Alternative Energy Strategies. The workshop participants came from the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Italy, Iran, and Japan. The workshop developed projections of energy supply and demand under various assumptions, notably concerning economic growth and the price of energy. Two basic scenarios were formulated, one assuming a high economic growth rate and high energy prices and the other a low growth rate and constant prices. The high-growth, high-price scenario assumed that economic growth in the non-Communist world would average 5.2% per year between 1976 and 1985 and 4% between 1985 and 2000, and that energy prices would remain constant (in real terms) until 1985 and increase 50% by 2000. The low-growth, constant-price scenario assumed that economic growth would average 3.4% per year until 1985 and then 2.8% until 2000, and that real energy prices would remain constant during the entire period. Within that framework energy-demand forecasts were prepared for the various regions for each fuel and were aggregated to project the total energy demand in 1985 and 2000.

• Research Organization: British Petroleum Co., Ltd., Sudbury-on-Thames, Eng.
• OSTI ID: 5073367
• Journal Information: Sci. Am.; (United States), Journal Name: Sci. Am.; (United States) Vol. 238:3; ISSN SCAMA
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020100 -- Petroleum-- Reserves-- (-1989)
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
294002* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
DEMAND FACTORS
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
MARKET
OIL-IMPORTING COUNTRIES
PETROLEUM
PRODUCTION
RECOVERY
RESOURCE DEPLETION