Forecasting electricity demand with end-use/econometric models

Conference · Wed Jun 01 04:00:00 EDT 1983

OSTI ID:5965882

King, M J; Scott, M J

The Railbelt Electricity Demand (RED) Model, reported in this paper, is a simulation model designed to forecast annual electricity consumption for the residential, commercial-industrial-government and miscellaneous end-use sectors of Alaska's Railbelt region. The model also takes into account government intervention in the energy markets via conservation programs in Alaska and produces forecasts of system annual peak demand. The forecasts of consumption by sector and system peak demand are produced in five-year steps for three Railbelt load centers: Anchorage and vicinity; Fairbanks and vicinity; and Glennallen/Valdez. When run in Monte Carlo mode, the model produces a sample probability distribution of forecasts of electricity consumption by end-use sector and peak demand for each load center for each forecast year: 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010. This distribution of forecasts can be used for planning electric power generating capacity. The RED model is accordingly designed to be run in tandem with a separate electric capacity planning and dispatching model which produces forecasts of retail electricity rates. 3 figures, 2 tables.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: AC06-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 5965882
• Report Number(s): PNL-SA-11412; CONF-830696-1; ON: DE83016167
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290200 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Economics & Sociology
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
296000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power
ALASKA
COMMERCIAL SECTOR
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMICS
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY MODELS
FEDERAL REGION X
FORECASTING
NORTH AMERICA
POWER DEMAND
PUBLIC UTILITIES
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
USA