Skip to main content
U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Econometric model of monthly peak load: case study for an electric utility system

Thesis/Dissertation ·
OSTI ID:6126090
A stock-adjustment model of peak load is developed which is macroeconometric and does not involve the problem of extensive data requirements. The model divides the process of electricity demand formation into: 1) the short-run characterized by variable utilization rates but fixed appliance stock, 2) the long-run adjustment featured by variable utilization and appliance stock adjustment, and 3) the long-run equilibrium stage. The short-run demand has constant weather elasticity but variable price elasticity. The stock-adjustment model is empirically tested for the Lincoln Electric System using a time-series data for January 1969 - December 1982. The estimation results are fairly reasonable and forecasting performance of the model is satisfactory. The model projections of annual peak load show that the utility will have a capacity shortage after 1994 without increase in power supply resources. The empirical study results do not support peak-load pricing. The model also can be used for evaluating some direct load control programs.
OSTI ID:
6126090
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English