An econometric simulation model of income and electricity demand in Alaska's Railbelt, 1982-2022

Technical Report · Thu Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1987

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/6817805· OSTI ID:6817805

Maddigan, R. J.; Hill, L. J.; Hamblin, D. M.; Van Dyke, J. W.; Brown, T. C.

This report describes the specification of-and forecasts derived from-the Alaska Railbelt Electricity Load, Macroeconomic (ARELM) model. ARELM was developed as an independent, modeling tool for the evaluation of the need for power from the Susitna Hydroelectric Project which has been proposed by the Alaska Power Authority. ARELM is an econometric simulation model consisting of 61 equations - 46 behavioral equations and 15 identities. The system includes two components: (1) ARELM-MACRO which is a system of equations that simulates the performance of both the total Alaskan and Railbelt macroeconomies and (2) ARELM-LOAD which projects electricity-related activity in the Alaskan Railbelt region. The modeling system is block recursive in the sense that forecasts of population, personal income, and employment in the Railbelt derived from ARELM-MACRO are used as explanatory variables in ARELM-LOAD to simulate electricity demand, the real average price of electricity, and the number of customers in the Railbelt. Three scenarios based on assumptions about the future price of crude oil are simulated and documented in the report. The simulations, which do not include the cost-of-power impacts of Susitna-based generation, show that the growth rate in Railbelt electricity load is between 2.5 and 2.7% over the 1982 to 2022 forecast period. The forecasting results are consistent with other projections of load growth in the region using different modeling approaches.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-84OR21400
• OSTI ID: 6817805
• Report Number(s): ORNL/TM-9795; ON: DE87005733
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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ALASKA
COMMERCIAL SECTOR
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMIC ELASTICITY
ECONOMICS
ELECTRIC POWER
ENERGY SOURCES
FEDERAL REGION X
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
INCOME
INDUSTRY
NATIONAL GOVERNMENT
NORTH AMERICA
PETROLEUM
POWER
POWER DEMAND
PRICES
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
SIMULATION
STATE GOVERNMENT
USA