Simulation study of the impact of world oil prices on the development of the Libyan economy
The goal of this study was to determine quantitatively how sensitive and vulnerable the Libyan economy's aggregates are to fluctuations in world oil prices. In order to achieve the goal, a macroeconomic model of the Libyan economy was constructed using annual data from 1962-1978. The model contains 36 relations, of which 19 are behavioral equations and 17 are identities. The model was validated by both historical simulation and a one-period out-of-sample forecast. Having established the predictive ability of the model, alternative future scenarios of the Libyan economy were examined from 1980-1987 by performing an ex-ante simulation for this period. This simulation was divided into two sections. The first covers the period 1980-1983, for which actual data for Libyan oil prices and the volume of Libyan oil exports are available. The second section covers the period 1984-1987. In this section the future of the Libyan economy was simulated under a basic price scenario which reflects the most likely forecast regarding the world oil price level from 1984-1987. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed by establishing a new scenario for the world oil price level from 1984-1987. A comparison the results of these simulations shows the effects resulting from changes in the world oil price level on the Libyan economy.
- OSTI ID:
- 5952086
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
020700 -- Petroleum-- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290200* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Economics & Sociology
294002 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
AFRICA
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
ECONOMIC IMPACT
ECONOMY
ENERGY EXPENSES
FORECASTING
LIBYA
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS