World oil price shocks and the Saudi Arabian economy: a macro econometric simulation

Thesis/Dissertation · Thu Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1987

OSTI ID:5695121

Taher, A A.H.

This thesis is devoted to a study of the impact of these changes in the international oil market on the different sectors of the Saudi economy. A macro economic model of the economy was developed and econometrically estimated, using annual data from 1962-1983. The model consists of 31 relations, 16 behavioral equations, and 15 identities. The predictive ability of the model was established through historical simulation and a one-period out of sample forecast. In general, this model is superior to existing models of the Saudi economy because it is more disaggregated and also because it is structure to allow the simulation of alternative economic futures. Ex-ante simulations were performed for the period 1985-1990. These simulations were divided into two stages: the first covering the period 1985-1986 for which actual data for oil prices, production, exports, and government revenues were available; the second covered the years 1987-1990, in which the future of the Saudi economy was examined under three different world oil price scenarios. Analysis of the results of these scenarios revealed that the Saudi economy is sensitive to fluctuation in world oil prices and also very vulnerable. Even under the optimistic price scenario, government oil revenues will fall considerably short of the estimated 200 billion Saudi riyals suggested by the Fourth Development Plan, 1985-1990.

• Research Organization: Colorado Univ., Boulder (USA)
• OSTI ID: 5695121
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020700* -- Petroleum-- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290200 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Economics & Sociology
294002 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
ASIA
ECONOMIC IMPACT
ECONOMY
ENERGY SOURCES
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
INDUSTRY
PETROLEUM
PETROLEUM INDUSTRY
PRICES
PROFITS
SAUDI ARABIA