Macroeconomic effects of petroleum supply interruptions. Volume I

Technical Report · Thu Mar 01 04:00:00 EST 1979

OSTI ID:5925369

Curtis, W P

This report analyzes the macroeconomic effects of ten alternative oil embargo scenarios. The scenarios differ with respect to the intensity and duration of the shortfall in petroleum imports, the amount of the world oil price increase, the application of U.S. petroleum price controls and product allocation regulations, and the extent to which the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is used. Shortfalls occur simultaneously throughout the oil-importing world. They are assumed to occur during all or part of 1980, and the effects on the U.S. economy over the 1980--1982 period are analyzed. The effects of the shortfalls were simulated with two different macroeconomic models of the U.S. economy: the Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (WEFA) Annual Energy Model of the United States, and the Data Resources, Inc. (DRI) Econometric Model of the U.S. Economy. The DRI model was used in conjunction with a model of petroleum allocation and industrial production developed by Scientific Applications, Inc. (SAI). Not all scenarios were simulated on all models. Scenarios and associated model results are summarized in Tables S1 and S2.

• Research Organization: Department of Energy, Washington, DC (USA). Energy Information Administration
• OSTI ID: 5925369
• Report Number(s): DOE/EIA-0102/48/1
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020700* -- Petroleum-- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
294002 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
ALLOCATIONS
DATA
ECONOMICS
EMBARGOES
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
IMPORTS
INFORMATION
NUMERICAL DATA
PETROLEUM
TABLES