Demand 80/81: forecasts of energy consumption to the year 2000. Volume 2: appendixes. Final report

Technical Report · Thu Oct 01 04:00:00 EDT 1981

OSTI ID:5837348

Borges, A M; Boyce, C M; Crow, R T

The Demand 80/81 forecasts cover each sector of the economy and are conditional upon alternative assumptions concerning national economic growth, energy prices, other prices, and conservation policy. The forecasts also include forms of energy other than electricity to provide a comprehensive energy picture. Although the forecasts proceed through time in one-year increments, their primary focus is on the period from 1985 to 2000. The forecasts are based on twelve sets of alternative assumptions, or scenarios. A forecast of economic growth and nonenergy variables is used to drive the model to 12 different conditional forecasts. These represent four sets of price assumptions and three sets of non-price conservation assumptions. The price assumptions are: high, baseline, low and constant 1976, which - because of the inverse relationship between prices and consumption - represent low consumption, baseline consumption, high consumption, and extra high consumption, respectively. The non-price conservation assumptions are: no, baseline, and extra. The scenarios that are most important are: (1) low prices-no non-price conservation, (2) baseline prices-baseline non-price conservation, (3) high prices-baseline non-price conservation, and (4) high prices-extra non-price conservation. These Appendices document the detailed forecasts for the twelve final scenarios in the Demand 80/81 effort. Also, the computation and background underlying the non-price conservation scenarios are documented. Finally, the computer program used for Demand 80/81 is documented. (MCW)

• Research Organization: Applied Forecasting and Analysis, Inc., Los Altos, CA (USA)
• OSTI ID: 5837348
• Report Number(s): EPRI-EA-2078-Vol.2; ON: DE82900870
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290100 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Energy Analysis & Modeling
292000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
COAL
COMMERCIAL SECTOR
CONSUMPTION RATES
DATA
DATA COMPILATION
DEMAND
DEMAND FACTORS
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ECONOMICS
ELECTRIC POWER
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY MODELS
ENERGY SOURCES
FLUIDS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
INDUSTRY
INFORMATION
MANUFACTURING
MATERIALS
NATURAL GAS
NUMERICAL DATA
PETROLEUM
POWER
POWER GENERATION
PRICES
PUBLIC UTILITIES
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
TRANSPORTATION SECTOR