Demand 77: EPRI annual energy forecasts and consumption model. Volume 2. Documentation of major forecasting assumptions and description of scenarios

Technical Report · Sun Jul 01 04:00:00 EDT 1979

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/5764969· OSTI ID:5764969

Borges, A.; Boyd, J. W.; Crow, R. T.; Williams, L. J.

The report documents the major assumptions concerning economic growth and energy prices used for DEMAND 77 forecasts of national energy consumption to the year 2000. DEMAND 77 used six energy-consumption scenarios based on energy prices, technological change, and public policy. The three basic scenarios were titled baseline, high electricity consumption, and energy conservation. Each of these was explored with and without natural gas supply restrictions. In addition, one scenario was run in which the prices of all forms of energy quintupled by the year 2000. All of the scenarios used a single forecast of industrial output, personal income, prices of factors of production other than energy, and other variables necessary to drive the forecasts from Wharton Economic Forecasting Associates. Technological change not implicitly accounted for in the forecasting model, in the form of solar energy and electric automobiles, was handled by ex post adjustments. Public policy was included in the form of impacts of the complete implementation of the US government's National Energy Plan (1977) on energy prices and nonprice government actions.

• Research Organization: Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (USA)
• OSTI ID: 5764969
• Report Number(s): EPRI-EA-621-SR(Vol.2)
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290200 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Economics & Sociology
292000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
DATA
DATA FORMS
DEMAND FACTORS
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ELECTRIC POWER
ENERGY CONSERVATION
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY SUPPLIES
FORECASTING
INFORMATION
NORTH AMERICA
NUMERICAL DATA
POWER
PRICES
PUBLIC POLICY
SIMULATION
TABLES
TECHNOLOGY UTILIZATION
USA
WHOLESALE PRICES