DEMAND 77: EPRI annual energy forecasts and consumption model. Volume 1. Forecasts and general description of the model. [Use of DEMAND 77 for years 1980-2000]

Technical Report · Wed Mar 01 04:00:00 EST 1978

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/5014099· OSTI ID:5014099

Williams, L. J.; Boyd, J. W.; Crow, R. T.

This report presents forecasts of end-use consumption of electricity, petroleum, natural gas, and coal for the years 1980 to 2000. The forecasts are based on an econometric model whose equations represent energy consumption of each form of energy in each end-use sector. The forecasts are based on a forecast of long-run economic growth coupled with three scenarios concerning energy prices and conservation policy. Each of the scenarios was coupled with two scenarios concerning natural gas availability, one in which natural gas supplies are restricted at the assumed price and the second in which natural gas is freely available at the assumed price. The scenarios were: (1) a baseline scenario, which assumed that the most likely energy prices would prevail and that no significant new conservation policies would be adopted; (2) a high-electricity-consumption scenario, with low oil prices and minimal obstacles to the use of coal and nuclear energy for electricity generation: and (3) an energy-conservation scenario, which embodied the proposals in President Carter's National Energy Plan. Forecasts are presented for each of the sectors and for each of the forms of energy by five-year periods. The structure of the econometric model is described along with plans for further development.

• Research Organization: Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, Calif. (USA)
• OSTI ID: 5014099
• Report Number(s): EPRI-EA-621-SR(Vol.1)
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
298000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Consumption & Utilization
CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
CHARGES
COAL
COMMERCIAL SECTOR
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ECONOMICS
ELECTRIC POWER
ENERGY CONSERVATION
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY MODELS
ENERGY POLICY
ENERGY SOURCES
EPRI
FLUIDS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
INDUSTRY
NATIONAL ENERGY PLAN
NATURAL GAS
PETROLEUM
POWER
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
TRANSPORTATION SECTOR