Assumptions for the Annual Energy Outlook 1990
This Assumptions report is an auxiliary document to the Annual Energy Outlook 1990 (AEO) DOE/EIA-0383(90). It presents a more detailed discussion of the assumptions underlying the forecasts in the AEO. The forecasts presented in the AEO are outputs of the PC-AEO Forecasting Model (PC-AEO), a personal computer-based modeling system using a popular spreadsheet software. The PC-AEO is an economic equilibrium modeling system, with component modules representing electric utility pricing and fuel consumption, coal supply and end-use pricing, petroleum product pricing, crude oil production, and natural gas production and pricing. Also included are energy demand models representing end-use energy consumption by major end-use sector. The PC-AEO accounts for the interactions among these components of energy markets and projects prices and quantities for which energy supply equals demand. In the AEO, five forecast cases are presented: a base case, low and high world oil price growth, and low and high macroeconomic growth. The base case is the central forecast. The four other cases are presented to reflect the uncertainty inherent in any forecast of the future. They are based on reasonable lower and upper bounds on two key factors that affect energy trends -- world oil price and the rate of economic growth, and characterize a reasonable range of uncertainty for domestic oil production and petroleum imports under current energy policy. This Assumptions report presents the oil price and economic growth assumptions, as well as other quantitative assumptions for specific demand and supply modules of PC-AEO, that were used by EIA in developing the AEO base case and alternative scenario projections. Further details on the methodology, data, and assumptions are available from the contacts listed in the Preface. 18 figs., 3 tabs.
- Research Organization:
- USDOE Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (USA). Office of Energy Markets and End Use
- Sponsoring Organization:
- DOE/EI
- OSTI ID:
- 7269704
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/EIA-0527(90); ON: DE90007086
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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