Growing uncertainties in GNP, industrial energy use, dictate cautious-power-plant planning

Journal Article · Wed Jun 01 04:00:00 EDT 1983 · Electr. Light Power; (United States)

OSTI ID:5789219

Utroska, D

Analysts are uncertain about the traditional linkage of gross national product and electricity demand because they question the precision of GNP growth estimates. Because small changes in GNP translate into relatively large fluctuations in electric-generating capacity, forecasters are advised to shift to probabilistic load forecasting and the use of band forecasts to allow for these uncertainties. Further uncertainties derive from Bureau of Economic Analysis budget cuts for data gathering and the reliance on data from other agencies whose budgets were also cut. The failure to implement all of the 1977 recommendations for improving data used to estimate GNP also dictates caution in relying on GNP forecasts. While some analysts think that structural changes in the economy will dampen electricity growth despite economic growth, the Electric Power Research Institute argues that improved productivity will actually increase the demand for electricity. 3 figures. (DCK)

• OSTI ID: 5789219
• Journal Information: Electr. Light Power; (United States), Journal Name: Electr. Light Power; (United States) Vol. 61:6; ISSN ELLPA
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290200 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Economics & Sociology
296000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320300 -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization-- Industrial & Agricultural Processes
ACCURACY
DATA ANALYSIS
ECONOMIC GROWTH
FORECASTING
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
POWER DEMAND
RELIABILITY