Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections

Technical Report · Mon Aug 01 04:00:00 EDT 1983

OSTI ID:5573522

Energy Information Administration (EIA) quarterly forecasts of short-term energy supply, demand, and prices are revised in February, May, August, and November for publication in the Short-Term Energy Outlook, quarterly projections. Methodology volumes, which are published with the May and November issues, contain descriptions of the forecasting system and detailed analyses of the current issues that affect EIA's short-term energy forecasts. The forecasts are produced using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). Two principal driving variables are used in the STIFS model: the macroeconomic forecast and the world oil price assumptions. The macroeconomic forecasts, which are produced by Data Resources, Inc., (DRI), are adjusted by EIA in cases where EIA projections of the world price of crude oil differ from DRI estimates. EIA's Oil Market Simulation Model is used to project the world oil prices. The three projections for petroleum supply and demand are based on low, medium, and high economic growth scenarios which incorporate high, medium, and low crude oil price trajectories. In general, the following discussion of the forecast refers to the medium, or base case, scenario. Total petroleum consumption sensitivities, using varying assumptions about the level of price, weather, and economic activity are tabulated.

• Research Organization: USDOE Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC. Office of Energy Markets and End Use
• OSTI ID: 5573522
• Report Number(s): DOE/EIA-0202(83/3Q); ON: DE84000630
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020700* -- Petroleum-- Economics
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29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
294002 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
DEMAND
ELECTRIC POWER
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
PETROLEUM
POWER