Short-term energy outlook, quarterly projections. [Glossary]

Technical Report · Sun Aug 01 04:00:00 EDT 1982

OSTI ID:6399799

The forecasts are produced using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). Two principal variables drive the STIFS model: the macroeconomic forecast and the world price of crude oil. The macroeconomic forecast, which is produced by Data Resources, Inc. (DRI), is adjusted by EIA in cases where EIA projections of the world price of crude oil differ from DRI estimates. The Oil Market Simulation Model is used to project the world oil price. The three projections for petroleum supply and demand are based on low, medium, and high world oil price scenarios. In general, the following discussion of the forecast refers to the medium price, or base case, scenario. Alternative cases, using varying assumptions about the level of economic activity, new car efficiency, weather, stock change uncertainty, and preliminary data uncertainty, are given for the forecasts of petroleum product demand and oil imports. Chapter 2 contains a substantially expanded coverage of developments in and the outlook for the world petroleum situation.

• Research Organization: USDOE Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC. Office of Energy Markets and End Use
• OSTI ID: 6399799
• Report Number(s): DOE/EIA-0202(82/3Q); ON: DE83008068
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020700* -- Petroleum-- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
DEMAND
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY MODELS
ENERGY SOURCES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
PETROLEUM
PRICES
PRODUCTION