Outlook for thermal coal. [Projecting to year 2000]

Book · Tue Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1985

OSTI ID:5294622

Choe, B J

This paper uses an econometric simulation model of world energy markets to project the competitive supply, demand, and prices for thermal coal as a part of overall energy-balance projections. Under the assumptions of moderate economic growth in the market-economy countries and a pricing path for OPEC oil that remains relatively stable for the rest of the 1980s but increases steadily in the 1990s, the market economies demand for thermal coal is projected to increase from 1247 mtce in 1982 to 1505 mtce in 1990 and 2020 mtce in the year 2000. The share of coal in total primary energy consumption is expected to remain approximately constant for the 1982-1990 period but increase slightly in the 1990s. Recent setback suffered by the coal industry resulted primarily from economic recession. Latest data show that substitution of thermal coal for hydrocarbon fuels in thermal electricity generation took place steadily in the industrial countries, despite the softening of petroleum prices. It is the continuation of this substitution process that will provide one of the main sources of demand growth for thermal coal in the medium term.

• OSTI ID: 5294622
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT
015000* -- Coal
Lignite
& Peat-- Economic
Industrial
& Business Aspects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290200 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Economics & Sociology
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
294001 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Coal
CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
COAL
COMPETITION
ENERGY SOURCES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL SUBSTITUTION
FUELS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
MARKET
MATERIALS
PRICES