Model of world energy markets and OPEC pricing

Book · Sun Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1984

OSTI ID:5896011

Choe, B J

This paper presents an analysis of the world energy and petroleum markets, carried out by means of an econometric simulation model. The model accepts a certain pricing path for OPEC crude oil (a price seen as being chosen by OPEC mainly on the basis of its revenue implications) together with assumptions about GDP and population growth, and generates energy balance projections for seven world regions - three industrial country regions and four developing country groups. The demand side of the model consists of three end-use sectors (transportation, industrial and residential/commercial) and one energy transformation sector (thermal power generation). The model presently has an endogenous supply specification only for coal. The performance of the model in simulating the historical period of the 1970s was reasonably satisfactory. Simulation results under a range of assumptions about future economic growth and OPEC pricing portend that world demand for energy and petroleum is likely to remain at relatively low levels throughout the 1980s and the early 1990s. Past and expected petroleum price increases will provide a strong and sustained incentive to substitute away from energy and petroleum; enough to keep the demand for OPEC oil comfortably within OPEC's productive capacity through the early 1990s. Coal will play a key role as a substitute fuel for the next 20 years. About two-thirds of the projected incremental demand for primary energy between 1978 and the year 2000 is accounted for by developing countries. 87 references, 8 figures, 45 tables.

• OSTI ID: 5896011
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

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CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
COAL
DATA
DEMAND
DEMAND FACTORS
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMICS
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL SUBSTITUTION
FUELS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
INFORMATION
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
MARKET
MATERIALS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
NUMERICAL DATA
OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES
OPEC
PETROLEUM
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
PRICES
STATISTICAL DATA