World energy outlook. [Projection to year 2000; monograph]

Book · Tue Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1980

OSTI ID:5161771

This outlook, projecting energy supply and demand to the year 2000, is based on an assessment of world economic activity which indicates that the rate of world economic growth will probably be about two-thirds the 1965 to 1973 level. The results may be summarized as follows: (1) energy demand may grow only half as rapidly as in the 1965 to 1973 period; nonetheless, by 2000 the world will probably be consuming two-thirds more energy than at present; (2) oil demand is projected to grow at an annual rate of less than 1 percent, compared to over 7 percent from 1965 to 1973; the amount of oil used in industrial nations is expected to remain essentially constant, but its use will increase in developing countries; (3) conventional oil production will probably plateau around the turn of the century; transition to greater reliance on other energy forms will be well under way by that time; (4) the transition to greater reliance on energy forms other than conventional oil will be eased by a reduction in the energy intensity of overall economic activity; less energy will be consumed per unit of output as a result of conservation, new technology, and investments to increase energy efficiency, as well as further shifts in the mix of economic output to less-energy-intensive activities. The projections set forth here were prepared in a period of particularly rapid change in perceptions of world energy supply and demand and in oil prices. Factors that shaped the projections continue to change. For example, the extent of price changes by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in late 1979 was not anticipated in the outlook. However, the data shown in the charts are broadly representative of possible future trends, if assumptions about future public policies are correct.

• OSTI ID: 5161771
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
ASIA
CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
COAL
DEMAND
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ELECTRIC POWER
ENERGY
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
EUROPE
FLUIDS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
GLOBAL ASPECTS
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
IMPORTS
JAPAN
NATURAL GAS
NORTH AMERICA
NUCLEAR ENERGY
PETROLEUM
POWER
RESERVES
RESOURCES
SYNTHETIC FUELS
USA