SRC-II Demonstration Project. Phase zero, task number 3: deliverable number 9. Volume 9. Market assessment: petroleum markets outlook, supporting reports. [Forecasting to 2000]

Technical Report · Tue Jul 31 04:00:00 EDT 1979

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/5820303· OSTI ID:5820303

This report was prepared for Pittsburg and Midway Coal Mining Co. to project the world petroleum outlook to 2000, with emphasis on the US situation, but within the perspective of world energy and economic activity. In fact, the oil outlook - supply, demand, and most important, price - is derived by our system of balancing economic growth with energy supply, demand, and price. A single set of projections is adopted as the most probable as of June 1979, but the outlook may change as it has been changing over the past decade: In the early 1970s, we anticipated a rising real price for oil and considered that the true market price in 1973 was at least $5 a barrel (FOB Saudi marker crude) but acknowledged that how much above $5 a barrel was indeterminate. As it turned out, the market price was $10 a barrel. In 1974-75, we projected no real increase in the price of oil to 2000. In 1976-78, we projected that the real price would escalate at 3% per year to 2000. In this June 1979 outlook, we project rising real prices at 5% to 6% per year on a higher base for 1979. A major cause of this revision is the permanent loss of MMBD of production in Iran, or so the situation there is viewed. These changes have been caused principally by disappointments (except in Mexico) in exploration results. This in turn encourages some members of OPEC to constrain production still further. The last and most serious event is the dramatic decrease in Iranian production and the clear indication that 2 MMBD of the reduction is permanent.

• Research Organization: Pittsburgh and Midway Coal Mining Co., Denver, CO (USA)
• OSTI ID: 5820303
• Report Number(s): FE-3055-T1(Vol.9)
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT
010405 -- Coal
Lignite
& Peat-- Hydrogenation & Liquefaction
015000* -- Coal
Lignite
& Peat-- Economic
Industrial
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02 PETROLEUM
020700 -- Petroleum-- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
294001 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Coal
294002 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
CHARGES
COAL LIQUEFACTION
COAL RESERVES
DEMAND
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
EXPLORATION
FLUIDS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
GASOLINE
GEOLOGIC DEPOSITS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
LIQUEFACTION
MARKET
NATURAL GAS
NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS
NORTH AMERICA
OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES
OPEC
PETROLEUM
PETROLEUM DEPOSITS
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
PRICES
RESERVES
RESOURCES
THERMOCHEMICAL PROCESSES
USA