Sensitivity analysis of world oil prices. Analysis report AR/IA/79-47

Technical Report · Sat Sep 01 04:00:00 EDT 1979

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/5537279· OSTI ID:5537279

Rodekohr, M; Cato, D

An analysis of the impact of the political disruption in Iran on the world oil market is presented. During the first quarter of 1979, this disruption caused a loss of approximately 5 million barrels per day (MMBD) of oil production available for export from Iran to the rest of the world. This loss of production and the political climate in Iran have caused much speculation concerning future Iranian oil production and total Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil production in the nearterm and midterm. The analysis describes these issues in terms of two critical factors: the world oil price and the level of OPEC oil production in the nearterm and midterm. A detailed comparison of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Energy Information Agency (EIA) forecasting models of world oil prices is presented. This comparison consists of examining reasons for differences in the price forecasts of the CIA model by using CIA assumptions within the EIA model. The CIA and EIA model structures and major parameters are also compared. It is important to note that this analysis is not all encompassing. In particular, the analysis does not provide data on crude oil prices in the spot market, but does provide information on the average crude oil price; and does not permit rationing of oil, since the market is forced to clear only through changes in oil prices. Throughout this paper, world oil prices are defined in terms of real 1978 dollars per barrel of crude oil delivered to the East Coast of the United States net of any import fees.

• Research Organization: Department of Energy, Washington, DC (USA). Energy Information Administration
• OSTI ID: 5537279
• Report Number(s): DOE/EIA-0184/20
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020700* -- Petroleum-- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
294002 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
ASIA
ENERGY SOURCES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS
IRAN
MARKET
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MIDDLE EAST
PETROLEUM
POLITICAL ASPECTS
PRICES