Short-term energy outlook: methodology

Technical Report · Mon Jul 01 04:00:00 EDT 1985

OSTI ID:5143442

Volume 2 of the ''Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook)'' is published periodically as a supplement to Volume 1 of the ''Outlook'', which is published quarterly. The July 1985 ''Outlook'', volume 1, presented projections of energy production, demand, inventories, and prices through 1986. The second chapter of this volume reviews some of the analytical techniques used to prepare those forecasts. The chapters in this report are independent, so that specific information can be obtained without reading the entire volume. A brief description of each chapter is given below: Chapter 2 - Discusses recent changes in the forecasting methodology; Chapter 3 - Evaluates the accuracy of previous short-term energy forecasts and the major assumptions underlying these forecasts published in the last 13 issues of the ''Outlook''; Chapter 4 - Evaluates the accuracy of the models with simulations usig the correct values for the independent variables; Chapter 5 - Presents a comparison of recent energy forecasts for 1985; Chapter 6 - Presents the results of an analysis of electricity demand between 1953 and 1983, with emphasis on the effects of structural change on price and income elasticities; and Chapter 7 - Discusses a method for projecting energy supply components simultaneously in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). Examples compare this method with the current STIFS integrating methodology. 8 refs., 3 figs., 54 tabs.

• Research Organization: USDOE Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC. Office of Energy Markets and End Use
• OSTI ID: 5143442
• Report Number(s): DOE/EIA-0202(85/3Q)2; ON: DE86001828
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
COAL
DEMAND
ELECTRIC POWER
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY MODELS
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
FLUIDS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUEL OILS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
GASOLINE
INVENTORIES
LIQUID FUELS
MATERIALS
NATURAL GAS
NORTH AMERICA
OILS
ORGANIC COMPOUNDS
OTHER ORGANIC COMPOUNDS
PETROLEUM
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
POWER
PRICES
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
USA