Derivation of models for nuclear weapon terrorist arming and detonation risk analysis
This report investigates "use control" for the on-site arming and detonation, by terrorists, of stored weapon systems. We investigate both components of weapon "use control", which we define as: (1) weapon "use denial" * that we model as a probability, Pj (denial), that represents the chances that terrorists attempting to arm a type j weapon will commit a non-recoverable error, and (2) weapon "use delay" that we model as a random variable, Tj , that represents the arming delay imposed by the use control features of a type j weapon, before detonation can occur. Using information pertaining to the physical security system at a storage site, the postulated terrorist attack force size, and simulated combat engagement outcomes, we formulate the frequency, fj , and probability, P(dj ), of on-site detonation, for generic weapon types j. We derive a model that disjoins the performance of site physical security, from that for weapon use control, if the use control random variable Tj has a Uniform or histogram distribution. This is an especially significant result where most complex distributions can be adequately approximated with a histogram. Hence, we can conduct combat simulations to obtain the physical security performance of a specific storage site independent of the use control features associated with specific weapon types that are stored, or might be stored, at the site. In turn, we can obtain the use control performance for various weapon types, independent of where they are stored and the physical security systems surrounding them. Our models can then mathematically combine physical security performance and weapon use control performance for any combination of storage facility and weapon type.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Defense Programs (DP)
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-Eng-48
- OSTI ID:
- 4077
- Report Number(s):
- UCRL-ID-132476; DP0101011; ON: DE00004077
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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