Formulation for the integrated assessment of physical
This report describes a quantitative model for assessing the effectiveness of combined physical security and use control systems for stored nuclear weapons. Called a Security Risk Assessment-Decision/Event Tree (SRA-DET), the model is based on scenarios that have been developed and applied to a limited set of terrorist threats to a hypothetical storage facility. The report includes a number of mathematical models, each of which represents a hypothetical terrorist threat scenario. A conventional probabilistic modeling approach is taken, in which conditional probabilities and underlying random variables are hierarchically introduced until variables are obtained that are measurable and have immediate, real-world, operational meanings. The probabilistic contributions of various terrorist threats to several final and intermediate outcomes are formulated. These include the conditional probability (given that a threat attempt occurs) of terrorists arming a nuclear weapon at its storage site or off-site. Intermediate outcomes include storage bunker (igloo) penetration, gaining possession of a weapon, and removing a weapon from the site. The frequencies of occurrence for these final and intermediate outcomes are formulated. This model may provide assistance for decisions involving allocating additional resources to either physical security upgrades or weapon use control enhancements in the continental United States (CONUS). It may also be applied to assessments of non-CONUS sites, in particular those of NATO and th
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Defense Programs (DP)
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-Eng-48
- OSTI ID:
- 6366185
- Report Number(s):
- UCRL-ID-124129; ON: DE00002537
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: DP0101011
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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