Assessing the impact of climate change on rainfall-triggered landslides: a case study in California

Semnani, Shabnam J.; Han, Yi; Bonfils, Céline J.; White, Joshua A.

doi:10.1007/s10346-024-02428-0

Assessing the impact of climate change on rainfall-triggered landslides: a case study in California

Journal Article · Wed Jan 08 04:00:00 EST 2025 · Landslides

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-024-02428-0· OSTI ID:2997206

^[1]; Han, Yi ^[1]; Bonfils, Céline J. ^[2]; White, Joshua A. ^[2]

Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States)
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Landslides are widespread natural hazards which take a heavy toll on lives, property, and infrastructure each year. In January 2023 and 2024, widespread landslides occurred in California as a result of extreme winter precipitation. Estimating the regional evolution of landslide hazard in a changing climate is essential for adaptation planning and risk mitigation efforts. The complex effects of climate change on landslide hazard, however, are poorly understood. Here, we use climate and landslide observations to develop a novel data-driven approach for landslide susceptibility assessment under historical and future climate conditions. We apply this framework to investigate the evolution of landslide susceptibility in California and its impacts on the roadway system based on downscaled climate projections under moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. On average, the results indicate an increase in landslide susceptibility through 2100 in regions where historical susceptibility is moderate to very high. Although the spatio-temporal variations in landslide susceptibility are sensitive to climate model uncertainties in predicting extreme rainfall, the direst impacts are largely circumvented in lower emission scenarios.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); National Science Foundation (NSF)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-07NA27344

OSTI ID:: 2997206

Report Number(s):: LLNL--JRNL-2011572

Journal Information:: Landslides, Journal Name: Landslides Journal Issue: 5 Vol. 22; ISSN 1612-510X; ISSN 1612-5118

Publisher:: Springer Science and Business Media LLCCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Assessing the impact of climate change on rainfall-triggered landslides: a case study in California

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