Climate change increases risk of extreme rainfall following wildfire in the western United States

Touma, Danielle; Stevenson, Samantha; Swain, Daniel L.; Singh, Deepti; Kalashnikov, Dmitri A.; Huang, Xingying

doi:10.1126/sciadv.abm0320

Climate change increases risk of extreme rainfall following wildfire in the western United States

Journal Article · Fri Apr 01 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Science Advances

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abm0320· OSTI ID:1980718

^[1]; Stevenson, Samantha ^[2]; ^[3]; ^[4]; ^[4]; ^[5]

University of California, Santa Barbara, CA (United States); National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States); University of California, Santa Barbara
University of California, Santa Barbara, CA (United States)
University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, (United States); National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); The Nature Conservancy of California, San Francisco, CA (United States)
Washington State University, Vancouver, WA (United States)
University of California, Santa Barbara, CA (United States); National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

Post-wildfire extreme rainfall events can have destructive impacts in the western United States. Using two climate model large ensembles, we assess the future risk of extreme fire weather events being followed by extreme rainfall in this region. By mid-21st century, in a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), we report large increases in the number of extreme fire weather events followed within 1 year by at least one extreme rainfall event. By 2100, the frequency of these compound events increases by 100% in California and 700% in the Pacific Northwest in the Community Earth System Model v1 Large Ensemble. We further project that more than 90% of extreme fire weather events in California, Colorado, and the Pacific Northwest will be followed by at least three spatially colocated extreme rainfall events within five years. Our results point to a future with substantially increased post-fire hydrologic risks across much of the western United States.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States); University of California, Santa Barbara, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC); University of California, Los Angeles; National Center for Atmospheric Research; Nature Conservancy of California; National Science Foundation (NSF); Washington State University Vancouver

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0019418

OSTI ID:: 1980718

Journal Information:: Science Advances, Journal Name: Science Advances Journal Issue: 13 Vol. 8; ISSN 2375-2548

Publisher:: AAASCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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