Potential effects of global warming and carbon dioxide on wheat production in the Commonwealth of Independent States
- State Hydrological Inst., Saint Petersburg (Russian Federation)
- Agrophysical Inst., Saint Petersburg (Russian Federation)
The study combines the CERES-wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) crop growth model and climate change scenarios to estimate the possible impacts of climate change on wheat production (the main food crop of the country) in 19 sites of Russia and the former Soviet Republics. The sensitivity of the crop model to arbitrary incremental temperature and precipitation changes was estimated in two regions. A 2 C increase in temperature decreased yields by an average of {approx} 20% and a temperature increase of 4 C resulted in yield decreases of > 30%. These yield decreases probably result from a shortening of the wheat season length under a higher temperature. Changes by {+-} 20% in the precipitation had a smaller impact in simulated wheat yields than the changes in temperature. The GCM climate change alone resulted in considerable regional differences in simulated changes in wheat yields compared with baseline yields. In general, the climate change scenarios used were more favorable for winter than for spring wheat yields. The simulation study considered the beneficial physiological effects of CO{sub 2} on wheat yields. 38 refs., 4 figs., 5 tabs.
- OSTI ID:
- 248058
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-9211217--; ISBN 0-89118-126-1
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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