Impacts of climate change on wheat yield in the Canadian prairies
- Carleton Univ., Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)
- Forestry Canada, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)
Canada has been one of the top three wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) exporting nations during the last decade and therefore changes in Canada`s capacity to produce wheat could have profound effects on the Canadian economy and the international supply of wheat. Previous studies have indicated that wheat production systems in the Canadian prairies would be sensitive to a range of scenarios for global climate change. This study builds upon this foundation by evaluation the combined impacts of climate change, elevated CO{sub 2} levels, and selected adaptive strategies on wheat yields in the Canadian prairies. The CERES-wheat model was used to estimate yields and climate change scenarios were derived from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), and United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) global climate models (GCMs) 2 {times} CO{sub 2} experiments. Adaptive strategies considered in this study included earlier seeding dates for spring-seeded wheat, conversion to winter wheat and irrigation. The main conclusions were: (i) yield responses were sensitive to climatic change scenario and location, (ii) the climatic change scenarios tended to reduce and in some cases offset the beneficial effects stemming from elevated CO{sub 2} levels, and (iii) the effectiveness of response strategies varied according to the location, climatic change scenario, and selected response strategy. 28 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.
- OSTI ID:
- 248051
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-9211217--; ISBN 0-89118-126-1
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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