Possible effects of climate change on wheat and maize crops in France
- INRA, Avignon (France). Unite de Bioclimatologie
- INRA, Thiveral-Grignon (France). Unite de Bioclimatologie
This study evaluates the possible effects of climate modifications induced by increasing trace gas concentrations in the atmosphere, on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) yield and water demand in France. CERES-wheat and CERES-maize models are used with two French weather series and soil conditions. Weather variables were varied from present conditions, as simulated by various global climate models (GCMs). This chapter emphasizes the process of model calibration and the consequent uncertainties in final simulated results. Under the simulation conditions: (i) season lengths are shortened under climate change scenarios; (ii) yield decreases under climate change alone, but the decrease can be somewhat counteracted by direct CO{sub 2} effects on the crop, up to a 5 C temperature increase; and (iii) water use decreases under climate changes. Even if the large diversity of French climates and soils prohibits generalization of these results to the entire country, the main conclusions are: (i) under both temperate and Mediterranean climates, winter cereal yields will not be decreased by future conditions, provided that irrigation supply is not limiting under dry conditions and (ii) under temperate climate, maize could take advantage of development phase shrinkage and improve its radiation use efficiency. Changing sowing date produces varying results according to weather scenario, plant, and location. A more precise knowledge of initial soil water or temperature under changing conditions is necessary before optimal agronomic adaptation to future climate can be suggested.
- OSTI ID:
- 248056
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-9211217-; ISBN 0-89118-126-1; TRN: IM9628%%156
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 1992 annual meeting of the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Minneapolis, MN (United States), 1-6 Nov 1992; Other Information: PBD: 1995; Related Information: Is Part Of Climate change and agriculture: Analysis of potential international impacts; PB: 399 p.; ASA special publication, Number 59
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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