Evaluating the regional risks to food availability and access from land-based climate policies in an Integrated Assessment Model

Cui, Ryna; Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Clarke, Leon E.; Hultman, Nathan; Patwardhan, Anand; Gilmore, Elisabeth

doi:10.1007/s10669-022-09860-4

Evaluating the regional risks to food availability and access from land-based climate policies in an Integrated Assessment Model

Journal Article · Sun May 22 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Environment Systems and Decisions

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-022-09860-4· OSTI ID:2332968

Cui, Ryna ^[1]; Waldhoff, Stephanie T. ^[2]; Clarke, Leon E. ^[3]; Hultman, Nathan ^[1]; Patwardhan, Anand ^[1]; Gilmore, Elisabeth ^[4]

University of Maryland at College Park
BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)
UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND, COLLEGE PARK
Clark University

Mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is necessary to reduce the overall negative climate change impacts on crop yields and agricultural production. However, certain mitigation measures may generate unintended consequences to food availability and food access due to both land use competition and economic burden of mitigation. Integrated assessment models (IAM) are generally used to evaluate these policies; however, currently these models may not capture the importance of income and food prices for hunger and overall economic wellbeing. Here, we implement a measure of food security that captures the nutritional and economic aspects as the total expenditures on staple foods divided by income and weighted by total caloric consumption in an IAM, the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM4.0). We then project consumer prices and our measure of food security along the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Sustained economic growth underpins increases in caloric consumption and lowering expenditures on staple foods. Strict conservation policies affect food accessibility in a larger number of developing countries, whereas the negative effects of pricing terrestrial emissions is more concentrated on the poor in Sub-Saharan Africa, by substantially replacing their cropland with forests and affecting the production of key staples.

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

DOE Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 2332968

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-172485

Journal Information:: Environment Systems and Decisions, Journal Name: Environment Systems and Decisions Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 42

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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