A global food demand model for the assessment of complex human-earth systems

EDMONDS, JAMES A.; LINK, ROBERT; WALDHOFF, STEPHANIE T.; CUI, RYNA

doi:10.1142/S2010007817500129

A global food demand model for the assessment of complex human-earth systems

Journal Article · Wed Nov 01 04:00:00 EDT 2017 · Climate Change Economics

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010007817500129· OSTI ID:1415076

EDMONDS, JAMES A. ^[1]; LINK, ROBERT ^[1]; WALDHOFF, STEPHANIE T. ^[1]; CUI, RYNA ^[1]

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s, Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA

Demand for agricultural products is an important problem in climate change economics. Food consumption will shape and shaped by climate change and emissions mitigation policies through interactions with bioenergy and afforestation, two critical issues in meeting international climate goals such as two-degrees. We develop a model of food demand for staple and nonstaple commodities that evolves with changing incomes and prices. The model addresses a long-standing issue in estimating food demands, the evolution of demand relationships across large changes in income and prices. We discuss the model, some of its properties and limitations. We estimate parameter values using pooled cross-sectional-time-series observations and the Metropolis Monte Carlo method and cross-validate the model by estimating parameters using a subset of the observations and test its ability to project into the unused observations. Finally, we apply bias correction techniques borrowed from the climate-modeling community and report results.

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (US)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

DOE Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1415076

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-121534; KP1703030

Journal Information:: Climate Change Economics, Journal Name: Climate Change Economics Journal Issue: 04 Vol. 08; ISSN 2010-0078

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (22)

Weather and international price shocks on food prices in the developing world Brown, Molly E.; Kshirsagar, Varun Global Environmental Change, Vol. 35 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.08.003	journal	November 2015
Negative Impact on Calorie Intake Associated with the 2006–08 Food Price Crisis in Latin America Iannotti, Lora; Robles, Miguel Food and Nutrition Bulletin, Vol. 32, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1177/156482651103200205	journal	June 2011
Fuel Versus Food Chakravorty, Ujjayant; Hubert, Marie-Hélène; Nøstbakken, Linda Annual Review of Resource Economics, Vol. 1, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.resource.050708.144200	journal	October 2009
Implications of Limiting CO2 Concentrations for Land Use and Energy Wise, M.; Calvin, K.; Thomson, A. Science, Vol. 324, Issue 5931 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1168475	journal	May 2009
Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems Yu, Wusheng; Hertel, Thomas W.; Preckel, Paul V. Economic Modelling, Vol. 21, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0264-9993(02)00086-X	journal	January 2004
Impacts of world prices transmission to domestic rice markets in rural Iran Bakhshoodeh, M. Food Policy, Vol. 35, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2009.06.006	journal	February 2010
Estimates of Food Demand Elasticities for Great Britain: 1972-1994 Tiffin, Abigail; Tiffin, Richard Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 50, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-9552.1999.tb00800.x	journal	January 1999
Marketing margins and the welfare analysis of food price shocks Dawe, David; Maltsoglou, Irini Food Policy, Vol. 46 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2013.12.010	journal	June 2014
The Next Generation of the Penn World Table Feenstra, Robert C.; Inklaar, Robert; Timmer, Marcel P. American Economic Review, Vol. 105, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20130954	journal	October 2015
The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique Agricultural Economics, Vol. 45, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12089	journal	December 2013
Monte Carlo sampling methods using Markov chains and their applications Hastings, W. K. Biometrika, Vol. 57, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/57.1.97	journal	April 1970
Household Rice Expenditure and Maternal and Child Nutritional Status in Bangladesh Campbell, Ashley A.; de Pee, Saskia; Sun, Kai The Journal of Nutrition, Vol. 140, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.3945/jn.109.110718	journal	November 2009
Demand side drivers of global food security Regmi, Anita; Meade, Birgit Global Food Security, Vol. 2, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2013.08.001	journal	September 2013
Model selection when estimating and predicting consumer demands using international, cross section data Cranfield, J. A. L.; Eales, James S.; Hertel, Thomas W. Empirical Economics, Vol. 28, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s001810200135	journal	April 2003
How much have domestic food prices increased in the new era of higher food prices? Dawe, David; Morales-Opazo, Cristian; Balie, Jean Global Food Security, Vol. 5 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2015.01.001	journal	June 2015
High Food Prices and the Global Financial Crisis Have Reduced Access to Nutritious Food and Worsened Nutritional Status and Health Brinkman, Henk-Jan; de Pee, Saskia; Sanogo, Issa The Journal of Nutrition, Vol. 140, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.3945/jn.109.110767	journal	November 2009
World Food Demand Gao, Grace American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 94, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aar133	journal	December 2011
Giffen Behavior and Subsistence Consumption Jensen, Robert T.; Miller, Nolan H. American Economic Review, Vol. 98, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.98.4.1553	journal	August 2008
Country and regional staple food price indices for improved identification of food insecurity Brown, M. E.; Tondel, F.; Essam, T. Global Environmental Change, Vol. 22, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.03.005	journal	August 2012
Equation of State Calculations by Fast Computing Machines Metropolis, Nicholas; Rosenbluth, Arianna W.; Rosenbluth, Marshall N. The Journal of Chemical Physics, Vol. 21, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1699114	journal	June 1953
The Impact of Food Prices on Consumption: A Systematic Review of Research on the Price Elasticity of Demand for Food Andreyeva, Tatiana; Long, Michael W.; Brownell, Kelly D. American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 100, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2008.151415	journal	February 2010
Food Insecurity in Vulnerable Populations: Coping with Food Price Shocks in Afghanistan D'Souza, A.; Jolliffe, D. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 96, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aat089	journal	December 2013

Similar Records

A Global Food Demand Model for the Assessment of Complex Human-Earth Systems

Journal Article · Wed Nov 01 00:00:00 EDT 2017 · Climate Change Economics · OSTI ID:1489898

ambrosia: An R package for calculating and analyzing food demand that is responsive to changing incomes and prices

Journal Article · Mon Mar 29 20:00:00 EDT 2021 · Journal of Open Source Software · OSTI ID:1925235

The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models

Journal Article · Tue Dec 31 23:00:00 EST 2013 · Agricultural Economics, 45(1):51-67 · OSTI ID:1130236

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
climate change
fo
in

A global food demand model for the assessment of complex human-earth systems

Citation Formats

References (22)

Similar Records

Related Subjects