A global food demand model for the assessment of complex human-earth systems

EDMONDS, JAMES A.; LINK, ROBERT; WALDHOFF, STEPHANIE T.; CUI, RYNA

doi:10.1142/S2010007817500129

A global food demand model for the assessment of complex human-earth systems

Journal Article · Wed Nov 01 00:00:00 EDT 2017 · Climate Change Economics

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010007817500129· OSTI ID:1415076

EDMONDS, JAMES A. ^[1]; LINK, ROBERT ^[1]; WALDHOFF, STEPHANIE T. ^[1]; CUI, RYNA ^[1]

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s, Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA

Demand for agricultural products is an important problem in climate change economics. Food consumption will shape and shaped by climate change and emissions mitigation policies through interactions with bioenergy and afforestation, two critical issues in meeting international climate goals such as two-degrees. We develop a model of food demand for staple and nonstaple commodities that evolves with changing incomes and prices. The model addresses a long-standing issue in estimating food demands, the evolution of demand relationships across large changes in income and prices. We discuss the model, some of its properties and limitations. We estimate parameter values using pooled cross-sectional-time-series observations and the Metropolis Monte Carlo method and cross-validate the model by estimating parameters using a subset of the observations and test its ability to project into the unused observations. Finally, we apply bias correction techniques borrowed from the climate-modeling community and report results.

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (US)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

DOE Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1415076

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-121534; KP1703030

Journal Information:: Climate Change Economics, Journal Name: Climate Change Economics Journal Issue: 04 Vol. 08; ISSN 2010-0078

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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