Bayesian inference for the seismic moment tensor using regional waveforms and a data-derived distribution of velocity models

Technical Report · Wed Sep 27 04:00:00 EDT 2023

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/2006761· OSTI ID:2006761

Chiang, Andrea ^[1]; Ford, Sean ^[1]; Pasyanos, Mike ^[1]

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1. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

The largest source of uncertainty in any source inversion is the velocity model used to construct the transfer function employed in the forward model that relates observed ground motion to the seismic moment tensor. However, standard inverse procedures often does not quantify uncertainty in the seismic moment tensor due to error in the Green’s functions from uncertain event location and Earth structure. We attempt to incorporate this uncertainty into an estimation of the seismic moment tensor using a distribution of velocity models calculated in a prior effort based on different and complementary data sets. The posterior distribution of velocity models is then used to construct Green’s functions for use in Bayesian inference of an unknown seismic moment tensor using regional waveform data. The combined likelihood is estimated using data-specific error models and the posterior of the seismic moment tensor is estimated and can be interpreted in terms of most-probable source-type.

• Research Organization: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
• DOE Contract Number: AC52-07NA27344
• OSTI ID: 2006761
• Report Number(s): LLNL-TR--854972; 1083876
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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58 GEOSCIENCES