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Bayesian Inference for the Seismic Moment Tensor Using Regional Waveforms and Teleseismic-P Polarities with a Data-Derived Distribution of Velocity Models and Source Locations

Journal Article · · Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1785/0120240226· OSTI ID:2530709
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
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The largest source of uncertainty in any source inversion is the velocity model used in the transfer function that relates observed ground motion to the seismic moment tensor. However, standard inverse procedure often does not quantify uncertainty in the seismic moment tensor due to error in the Green’s functions from uncertain event location and Earth structure. Here, we incorporate this uncertainty into an estimation of the seismic moment tensor using a data-derived distribution of velocity models based on complementary geophysical data sets, including thickness constraints, velocity profiles, gravity data, surface-wave group velocities, and regional body-wave travel times. The data-derived distribution of velocity models is then used as a prior distribution of Green’s functions for use in Bayesian inference of an unknown seismic moment tensor using regional and teleseismic-P waveforms. The use of multiple data sets is important for gaining resolution to different components of the moment tensor. The combined likelihood is estimated using data-specific error models and the posterior of the seismic moment tensor is estimated and interpreted in terms of the most probable source type.

Research Organization:
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation
Grant/Contract Number:
AC52-07NA27344
OSTI ID:
2530709
Report Number(s):
LLNL--JRNL-868856; 1104825
Journal Information:
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Journal Name: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 115; ISSN 0037-1106
Publisher:
Seismological Society of AmericaCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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  • Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 113, Issue 5, p. 2211-2226 https://doi.org/10.1785/0120220234
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