Intra-hour Solar Irradiance Forecast in Multiple Locations using Deep Transfer Learning

Conference · Thu Jul 20 04:00:00 EDT 2023

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1109/ICECCME57830.2023.10253426· OSTI ID:1989796

Roy, Aditi ^[1]; Muenz, Ulrich; Bamberger, Joachim; Chang, Ti-chiun; Bilby, Chris

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1. Siemens

In recent years, solar power system installation imposes several challenges on the operations of local and regional power grids due to the inherent variability of ground-level solar irradiance. This work proposes a novel real-time solar forecast methodology for intra-hour solar irradiance based on deep transfer learning from ground-based sky imager for time horizons ranging from 5-15 min. There are three unique aspects of the proposed methodology: (1) a Deep Learning based algorithm development which is modeled as a classification approach rather than a traditional regression approach; (2) the use of the Transfer Learning technique to show generalization capability, robustness, and portability of baseline model in the newly deployed location where availability of enough data for training is typically scarce, and (3) redefinition of point-based irradiation forecast error estimation technique with a window-based one that is more intuitive and user-friendly. The system is developed using multiple years of irradiance and sky image recording in New Jersey and one-year data from Colorado, USA. The method is validated against ground telemetry from these two locations of diverse geographic and climatic conditions. Results show that the forecasting method proposed in this work is robust and highly accurate (8% MAPE error) for multiple locations deployment.

• Research Organization: Siemens
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EFRE), Renewable Power Office, Solar Energy Technology Office
• DOE Contract Number: EE0008769
• OSTI ID: 1989796
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

Deep Learning
Convolution Neural Networks
transfer learning
irradiation forecast