Short-term solar radiation forecast using total sky imager via transfer learning

Manandhar, Prajowal; Temimi, Marouane; Aung, Zeyar

doi:10.1016/j.egyr.2022.11.087

Short-term solar radiation forecast using total sky imager via transfer learning

Journal Article · Fri Nov 18 00:00:00 EST 2022 · Energy Reports

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2022.11.087· OSTI ID:1901752

Manandhar, Prajowal ^[1]; Temimi, Marouane ^[2]; Aung, Zeyar ^[3]

Dubai Electricity and Water Authority, Dubai (United Arab Emirates)
Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ (United States)
Khalifa University, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)

Ground-based sky cameras, which capture hemispherical images, have been extensively used for localized monitoring of clouds. This paper proposes a short-term forecasting approach based on transfer learning using Total Sky-Imager (TSI) images of the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site obtained from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) dataset. An accurate estimation of solar irradiance using TSI is key for short-term solar energy generation forecasting and optimal energy consumption planning. We make use of deep neural network architectures such as AlexNet and ResNet-101 to extract the underlying deep convolution features from TSI images and then train using an ensemble learning approach to model and forecast solar radiation. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach by showcasing the best and worst cases. Thus, the transfer learning approach significantly reduces the time and resources required for modeling solar radiation. We outperform with reference to another state-of-art technique for solar modeling using TSI images at different forecast lead times.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1901752

Journal Information:: Energy Reports, Journal Name: Energy Reports Vol. 9; ISSN 2352-4847

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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Short-term solar radiation forecast using total sky imager via transfer learning

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