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The path to 1.5 °C requires ratcheting of climate pledges

Journal Article · · Nature Climate Change
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  1. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute; Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
  2. US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States)
  3. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
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Using model simulations of high-ambition emissions pathways, we show that ratcheting—or increasing—climate ambition through 2030 will be crucial to limiting global peak temperature changes this century. Although updated pledges offered in advance of the Glasgow climate conference in 2021 meaningfully strengthened global ambition in 2030 compared to the 2015 Paris pledges, here, our study underscores the importance of countries ratcheting their 2030 pledges further to reduce the magnitude of temperature overshoot and consequently reduce the risks of irreversible and adverse consequences to natural and human systems.

Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE; USEPA
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
1987311
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-177898
Journal Information:
Nature Climate Change, Journal Name: Nature Climate Change Journal Issue: 12 Vol. 12; ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher:
Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (4)

Ethical choices behind quantifications of fair contributions under the Paris Agreement journal April 2021
Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot journal November 2021
Realization of Paris Agreement pledges may limit warming just below 2 °C journal April 2022
Can updated climate pledges limit warming well below 2°C? journal November 2021

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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
climate-change mitigation
climate-change policy
policy