Ratcheting of climate pledges needed to limit peak global warming

Iyer, Gokul; Ou, Yang; Edmonds, James; Fawcett, Allen A.; Hultman, Nathan; McFarland, James; Fuhrman, Jay; Waldhoff, Stephanie; McJeon, Haewon

doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01508-0

Ratcheting of climate pledges needed to limit peak global warming

Journal Article · Thu Nov 10 00:00:00 EST 2022 · Nature Climate Change

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01508-0· OSTI ID:1905717

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Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States)
University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)

We report the new and updated emission reduction pledges submitted by countries ahead of the Twenty-Sixth Conference of Parties represent a meaningful strengthening of global ambition compared to the 2015 Paris pledges. Yet, limiting global warming below 1.5 °C this century will require countries to ratchet ambition for 2030 and beyond. Here, we explore a suite of emissions pathways to show that ratcheting near-term ambition through 2030 will be crucial to limiting peak temperature changes. Delaying ratcheting ambition to beyond 2030 could still deliver end-of-century temperature change of less than 1.5 °C but would result in higher temperature overshoot over many decades with the potential for adverse consequences. Ratcheting near-term ambition would also deliver benefits from enhanced non-CO2 mitigation and facilitate faster transitions to net-zero emissions systems in major economies.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1905717

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-172425

Journal Information:: Nature Climate Change, Journal Name: Nature Climate Change Journal Issue: 12 Vol. 12; ISSN 1758-678X

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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