Fulfilling global climate pledges can lead to major increase in forest land on Tibetan Plateau

Gao, Peichao; Gao, Yifan; Ou, Yang; McJeon, Haewon; Zhang, Xiaodan; Ye, Sijing; Wang, Yuanhui; Song, Changqing

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2023.106364

Fulfilling global climate pledges can lead to major increase in forest land on Tibetan Plateau

Journal Article · Wed Mar 08 23:00:00 EST 2023 · iScience

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2023.106364· OSTI ID:1962858

^[1]; Gao, Yifan ^[1]; Ou, Yang ^[2]; ^[2]; Zhang, Xiaodan ^[1]; Ye, Sijing ^[1]; Wang, Yuanhui ^[1]; Song, Changqing ^[1]

Beijing Normal University (China)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute; Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)

The UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow spawned the enhancement and updating of many nations’ climate pledges. Previous research has investigated the effects of these pledges on limiting planetary warming, but their spatially explicit effects on land use/cover are unknown. Here, we linked the Glasgow pledges and the spatially explicit responses of the Tibetan Plateau’s land systems. We found that while fulfilling global climate pledges may not significantly affect the global shares of forestland, grassland/pasture, shrubland, and cropland, it needs a 9.4% increase in the forest area of the Tibetan Plateau. This need is an area 11.4 times the increase of the plateau’s forest in the 2010s, or greater than the size of Belgium. The new forest comes mainly from the medium-density grassland in the Yangtze River basin, calling for more proactive environmental management for the headwaters area of this longest river in Asia.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC); Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1962858

Report Number(s):: PNNL-ACT-SA-10687

Journal Information:: iScience, Journal Name: iScience Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 26; ISSN 2589-0042

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (59)

Mapping the irrecoverable carbon in Earth's ecosystems Noon, Monica; Goldstein, Allie; Ledezma, Juan Carlos Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4091029	dataset	January 2021
Calculating the configurational entropy of a landscape mosaic Cushman, Samuel A. Landscape Ecology, Vol. 31, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-015-0305-2	journal	November 2015
Sustainable land-use optimization using NSGA-II: theoretical and experimental comparisons of improved algorithms Gao, Peichao; Wang, Haoyu; Cushman, Samuel A. Landscape Ecology, Vol. 36, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-020-01051-3	journal	June 2020
Exploring detailed urban-rural development under intersecting population growth and food production scenarios: Trajectories for China’s most populous agricultural province to 2030 Gao, Peichao; Xie, Yiru; Song, Changqing Journal of Geographical Sciences, Vol. 33, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-023-2080-3	journal	February 2023
Land system evolution of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau under various development strategies Jin, Xiaolong; Jiang, Penghui; Ma, Danxun Applied Geography, Vol. 104 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2019.01.007	journal	March 2019
Linking climate change and socioeconomic development to urban land use simulation: Analysis of their concurrent effects on carbon storage Yang, Hang; Huang, Junlong; Liu, Dianfeng Applied Geography, Vol. 115 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2019.102135	journal	February 2020
Modelling and evaluating the economy-resource-ecological environment system of a third-polar city using system dynamics and ranked weights-based coupling coordination degree model Wang, Yuanhui; Song, Changqing; Cheng, Changxiu Cities, Vol. 133 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2022.104151	journal	February 2023
Increase or decrease? Integrating the CLUMondo and InVEST models to assess the impact of the implementation of the Major Function Oriented Zone planning on carbon storage Nie, Xin; Lu, Bo; Chen, Zhoupeng Ecological Indicators, Vol. 118 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106708	journal	November 2020
Third Pole Environment (TPE) Yao, Tandong; Thompson, Lonnie G.; Mosbrugger, Volker Environmental Development, Vol. 3 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2012.04.002	journal	July 2012
Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Stehfest, Elke; Gernaat, David E. H. J. Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.008	journal	January 2017
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009	journal	January 2017
Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015	journal	January 2017
The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century Fricko, Oliver; Havlik, Petr; Rogelj, Joeri Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.004	journal	January 2017
SSP3: AIM implementation of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Masui, Toshihiko Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.009	journal	January 2017
The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality Calvin, Katherine; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Clarke, Leon Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.010	journal	January 2017
Land use projections in China under global socioeconomic and emission scenarios: Utilizing a scenario-based land-use change assessment framework Dong, Na; You, Lan; Cai, Wenjia Global Environmental Change, Vol. 50 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.04.001	journal	May 2018
The impacts of spatial resolutions on global urban-related change analyses and modeling Li, Xia; Chen, Guangzhao; Zhang, Yongping iScience, Vol. 25, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2022.105660	journal	December 2022
Towards multifunctional land use in an agricultural landscape: A trade-off and synergy analysis in the Lower Fraser Valley, Canada Rallings, Anna M.; Smukler, Sean M.; Gergel, Sarah E. Landscape and Urban Planning, Vol. 184 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2018.12.013	journal	April 2019
UNFCCC must confront the political economy of net-negative emissions Mohan, Aniruddh; Geden, Oliver; Fridahl, Mathias One Earth, Vol. 4, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.10.001	journal	October 2021
Projections of land use changes under the plant functional type classification in different SSP-RCP scenarios in China Liao, Weilin; Liu, Xiaoping; Xu, Xiyun Science Bulletin, Vol. 65, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2020.07.014	journal	November 2020
Tracking the seasonal and inter-annual variations of global gross primary production during last four decades using satellite near-infrared reflectance data Wang, Songhan; Zhang, Yongguang; Ju, Weimin Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 755 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142569	journal	February 2021
Impacts of Urban Expansion on Terrestrial Carbon Storage in China Liu, Xiaoping; Wang, Shaojian; Wu, Peijun Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 53, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b00103	journal	May 2019
Spatial Sequential Modeling and Predication of Global Land Use and Land Cover Changes by Integrating a Global Change Assessment Model and Cellular Automata Cao, Min; Zhu, Yanhui; Quan, Jinling Earth's Future, Vol. 7, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001228	journal	September 2019
Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities Myers, Norman; Mittermeier, Russell A.; Mittermeier, Cristina G. Nature, Vol. 403, Issue 6772 https://doi.org/10.1038/35002501	journal	February 2000
China: The third pole Qiu, Jane Nature, Vol. 454, Issue 7203 https://doi.org/10.1038/454393a	journal	July 2008
Open access to Earth land-cover map Jun, Chen; Ban, Yifang; Li, Songnian Nature, Vol. 514, Issue 7523 https://doi.org/10.1038/514434c	journal	October 2014
Global protected area expansion is compromised by projected land-use and parochialism Montesino Pouzols, Federico; Toivonen, Tuuli; Di Minin, Enrico Nature, Vol. 516, Issue 7531 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14032	journal	November 2014
Developing China’s Ecological Redline Policy using ecosystem services assessments for land use planning Bai, Yang; Wong, Christina P.; Jiang, Bo Nature Communications, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05306-1	journal	August 2018
Air quality co-benefits for human health and agriculture counterbalance costs to meet Paris Agreement pledges Vandyck, Toon; Keramidas, Kimon; Kitous, Alban Nature Communications, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06885-9	journal	November 2018
Global urban expansion offsets climate-driven increases in terrestrial net primary productivity Liu, Xiaoping; Pei, Fengsong; Wen, Youyue Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-13462-1	journal	December 2019
Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways Chen, Guangzhao; Li, Xia; Liu, Xiaoping Nature Communications, Vol. 11, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14386-x	journal	January 2020
Mapping global urban land for the 21st century with data-driven simulations and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Gao, Jing; O’Neill, Brian C. Nature Communications, Vol. 11, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15788-7	journal	May 2020
Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5 °C world Roe, Stephanie; Streck, Charlotte; Obersteiner, Michael Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0591-9	journal	October 2019
Atmospheric dynamic constraints on Tibetan Plateau freshwater under Paris climate targets Wang, Tao; Zhao, Yutong; Xu, Chaoyi Nature Climate Change, Vol. 11, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00974-8	journal	January 2021
The surprisingly inexpensive cost of state-driven emission control strategies Peng, Wei; Iyer, Gokul; Binsted, Matthew Nature Climate Change, Vol. 11, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01128-0	journal	August 2021
Climate change threatens terrestrial water storage over the Tibetan Plateau Li, Xueying; Long, Di; Scanlon, Bridget R. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 12, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01443-0	journal	August 2022
Realization of Paris Agreement pledges may limit warming just below 2 °C Meinshausen, Malte; Lewis, Jared; McGlade, Christophe Nature, Vol. 604, Issue 7905 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04553-z	journal	April 2022
Global maps of travel time to healthcare facilities Weiss, D. J.; Nelson, A.; Vargas-Ruiz, C. A. Nature Medicine, Vol. 26, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-1059-1	journal	September 2020
Global land use for 2015–2100 at 0.05° resolution under diverse socioeconomic and climate scenarios Chen, Min; Vernon, Chris R.; Graham, Neal T. Scientific Data, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-00669-x	journal	October 2020
Harmonized global maps of above and belowground biomass carbon density in the year 2010 Spawn, Seth A.; Sullivan, Clare C.; Lark, Tyler J. Scientific Data, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0444-4	journal	April 2020
Downscaling SSP-consistent global spatial urban land projections from 1/8-degree to 1-km resolution 2000–2100 Gao, Jing; Pesaresi, Martino Scientific Data, Vol. 8, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-021-01052-0	journal	October 2021
Land use and land cover change detection and spatial distribution on the Tibetan Plateau Hao, Shuang; Zhu, Fengshun; Cui, Yuhuan Scientific Reports, Vol. 11, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-87215-w	journal	April 2021
Direct and indirect loss of natural area from urban expansion van Vliet, Jasper Nature Sustainability, Vol. 2, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0340-0	journal	July 2019
Mapping the irrecoverable carbon in Earth’s ecosystems Noon, Monica L.; Goldstein, Allie; Ledezma, Juan Carlos Nature Sustainability, Vol. 5, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00803-6	journal	November 2021
The imbalance of the Asian water tower Yao, Tandong; Bolch, Tobias; Chen, Deliang Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Vol. 3, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00299-4	journal	June 2022
Global urban growth between 1870 and 2100 from integrated high resolution mapped data and urban dynamic modeling Li, Xuecao; Zhou, Yuyu; Hejazi, Mohamad Communications Earth & Environment, Vol. 2, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00273-w	journal	September 2021
Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5–2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America Colón-González, Felipe J.; Harris, Ian; Osborn, Timothy J. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1718945115	journal	May 2018
Attributing long-term sea-level rise to Paris Agreement emission pledges Nauels, Alexander; Gütschow, Johannes; Mengel, Matthias Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 116, Issue 47 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1907461116	journal	November 2019
How the Glasgow Declaration on Forests can help keep alive the 1.5 °C target Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Lewis, Simon L. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 119, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2200519119	journal	June 2022
Land cover change or land-use intensification: simulating land system change with a global-scale land change model van Asselen, Sanneke; Verburg, Peter H. Global Change Biology, Vol. 19, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12331	journal	August 2013
Benefits of the Paris Agreement to ocean life, economies, and people Sumaila, U. Rashid; Tai, Travis C.; Lam, Vicky W. Y. Science Advances, Vol. 5, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau3855	journal	February 2019
Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities Lo, Y. T. Eunice; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Gasparrini, Antonio Science Advances, Vol. 5, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau4373	journal	June 2019
Climate Change Will Affect the Asian Water Towers Immerzeel, W. W.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P. Science, Vol. 328, Issue 5984 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1183188	journal	June 2010
Last Stand on the Yangtze Stone, Richard Science, Vol. 329, Issue 5990 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.329.5990.378	journal	July 2010
The projected effect on insects, vertebrates, and plants of limiting global warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C Warren, R.; Price, J.; Graham, E. Science, Vol. 360, Issue 6390 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aar3646	journal	May 2018
Protect Third Pole's fragile ecosystem Liu, Jie; Milne, Richard I.; Cadotte, Marc W. Science, Vol. 362, Issue 6421 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw0443	journal	December 2018
Can updated climate pledges limit warming well below 2°C? Ou, Yang; Iyer, Gokul; Clarke, Leon Science, Vol. 374, Issue 6568 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abl8976	journal	November 2021
GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems Calvin, Katherine; Patel, Pralit; Clarke, Leon Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019	journal	January 2019
Harmonized global maps of above and belowground biomass carbon density in the year 2010 Spawn, Seth A.; Sullivan, Clare C.; Lark, Tyler J. figshare https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4561940	collection	January 2020

Similar Records

Evaluating the streamflow simulation capability of PERSIANN-CDR daily rainfall products in two river basins on the Tibetan Plateau

Journal Article · Mon Jan 09 23:00:00 EST 2017 · Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Online) · OSTI ID:1366534

Spatio-temporal dynamics of evapotranspiration on the Tibetan Plateau from 2000 to 2010

Journal Article · Tue Jan 10 23:00:00 EST 2017 · Environmental Research Letters · OSTI ID:1465869

Contribution of Tibetan Plateau ecosystems to local and remote precipitation through moisture recycling

Journal Article · Fri Oct 21 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Global Change Biology · OSTI ID:2527325

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Agricultural policy
Agricultural science
Environmental policy
Environmental science
Forestry

Fulfilling global climate pledges can lead to major increase in forest land on Tibetan Plateau

Citation Formats

References (59)

Similar Records

Related Subjects