A U.S.-China coal power transition and the global 1.5 °C pathway

Journal Article · Sat Sep 25 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Advances in Climate Change Research

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2021.09.005· OSTI ID:1924502

Cui, Ryna Yiyun ^[1]; Hultman, Nathan ^[1]; Cui, Di-Yang ^[1]; McJeon, Haewon ^[2]; Clarke, Leon ^[1]; Yuan, Jia-Hai ^[3]; Cai, Wen-Jia ^[4]

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1. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
2. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute; Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
3. North China Electric Power University, Beijing (China)
4. Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)

As the world seeks to increase ambition rapidly to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, joint leadership from the world's largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters—the United States (U.S.) and China—will be critical to deliver significant emissions reductions from their own countries as well as to catalyze increased international action. After a period of uncertainty in international climate policy, these countries now both have current leadership that supports ambitious climate action. In this context, a feasible, high-impact, and potentially globally catalytic agreement by the U.S. and China to transition away from coal to clean energy would be a major contribution toward this global effort. We undertake a plant-by-plant assessment in the power sector to identify practical coal retirement pathways for each country that are in line with national priorities and the global 1.5 °C target. Our plant-by-plant analysis shows that the 1.5 °C-compatible pathways may result in an average retirement age of 47 years for the U.S. coal plants and 22 years for Chinese coal plants, raising important questions of how to compare broader economic, employment, and social impacts. We also demonstrate that such pathways would also lead to significant emissions reductions, lowering overall global energy-related CO₂ emissions by about 9% in 2030 relative to 2020. A catalytic effect from the possibility of other countries taking compatible actions is estimated to reduce global emissions by 5.1 Gt CO₂ in 2030 and by 10.1 Gt CO₂ in 2045.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: GEIGC Science and Technology Project; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC); USDOE
• Grant/Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 1924502
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA-166672
• Journal Information: Advances in Climate Change Research, Journal Name: Advances in Climate Change Research Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 13; ISSN 1674-9278
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CHEMISTRY
Climate mitigation
Coal power transition
Integrated assessment modeling
Paris agreement
U.S.‒China