Skip to main content
OSTI.GOVU.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information
U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information
 

A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China

Journal Article · · Nature Communications
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [4];  [1];  [4];  [5];  [5];  [6]
  1. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
  2. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  3. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)
  4. Natural Resources Defense Council, Beijing (China)
  5. North China Electric Power Univ., Beijing (China)
  6. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)
+ Show Author Affiliations
More than half of current coal power capacity is in China. A key strategy for meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal and the global 1.5 °C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from unabated coal use. Here we detail how to structure a high-ambition coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs. We evaluate the 1037 currently operating coal plants based on comprehensive technical, economic and environmental criteria and develop a metric for prioritizing plants for early retirement. We find that 18% of plants consistently score poorly across all three criteria and are thus low-hanging fruits for rapid retirement. We develop plant-by-plant phaseout strategies for each province by combining our retirement algorithm with an integrated assessment model. With rapid retirement of the low-hanging fruits, other existing plants can operate with a 20- or 30-year minimum lifetime and gradually reduced utilization to achieve the 1.5 °C or well-below 2 °C climate goals, respectively, with complete phaseout by 2045 and 2055.
Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
1784941
Report Number(s):
PNNL-ACT-SA-10479
Journal Information:
Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 12; ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher:
Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (28)

IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer and Data hosted by IIASA dataset January 2019
Future CO 2 emissions and electricity generation from proposed coal-fired power plants in India: PROPOSED COAL PLANTS IN INDIA journal April 2017
RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100 journal July 2011
Modeling of power sector decarbonization in China: comparisons of early and delayed mitigation towards 2-degree target journal August 2019
Modelling energy technologies in a competitive market journal April 1993
Decarbonizing China’s energy system – Modeling the transformation of the electricity, transportation, heat, and industrial sectors journal December 2019
A just transition for coal miners? Community identity and support from local policy actors journal September 2018
The coal story: Generational coal mining communities and strategies of energy transition in Australia journal September 2018
The role of nuclear in China's energy future: Insights from integrated assessment journal April 2020
The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality journal January 2017
CCUS in China’s mitigation strategy: insights from integrated assessment modeling journal May 2019
SWITCH-China: A Systems Approach to Decarbonizing China’s Power System journal May 2016
Current Emissions and Future Mitigation Pathways of Coal-Fired Power Plants in China from 2010 to 2030 journal September 2018
Quantifying operational lifetimes for coal power plants under the Paris goals journal October 2019
Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5 °C climate target journal July 2019
Targeted emission reductions from global super-polluting power plant units journal January 2018
Commitment accounting of CO 2 emissions journal August 2014
Reports of coal’s terminal decline may be exaggerated journal February 2018
Committed emissions from existing and planned power plants and asset stranding required to meet the Paris Agreement journal May 2018
Stranded asset implications of the Paris Agreement in Latin America and the Caribbean journal April 2020
Early transformation of the Chinese power sector to avoid additional coal lock-in journal January 2020
Closures of coal‐fired power stations in Australia: local unemployment effects journal January 2019
Multi‐criteria decision analysis for nature conservation: A review of 20 years of applications journal January 2018
China's Energy and Carbon Emissions Outlook to 2050 report February 2011
Western Wind and Solar Integration Study: Hydropower Analysis report March 2012
A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system – Hector v1.0 journal January 2015
IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer and Data hosted by IIASA dataset January 2019
Committed emissions from existing and planned power plants and asset stranding required to meet the Paris Agreement audiovisual January 2018

Similar Records

A U.S.-China coal power transition and the global 1.5 °C pathway
Journal Article · Fri Sep 24 20:00:00 EDT 2021 · Advances in Climate Change Research · OSTI ID:1924502
Quantifying operational lifetimes for coal power plants under the Paris goals
Journal Article · Thu Oct 17 20:00:00 EDT 2019 · Nature Communications · OSTI ID:1608560
Pathways of China's PM2.5 air quality 2015–2060 in the context of carbon neutrality
Journal Article · Wed Apr 28 20:00:00 EDT 2021 · National Science Review · OSTI ID:1905996

Related Subjects

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS