Projected future daily characteristics of African precipitation based on global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE) climate models

Dosio, Alessandro; Jury, Martin W.; Almazroui, Mansour; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Diallo, Ismaila; Engelbrecht, Francois A.; Klutse, Nana B.; Lennard, Christopher; Pinto, Izidine; Sylla, Mouhamadou B.; Tamoffo, Alain T.

doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05859-w

Projected future daily characteristics of African precipitation based on global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE) climate models

Journal Article · Wed Jun 30 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Climate Dynamics

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05859-w· OSTI ID:1822044

^[1]; ^[2]; ^[3]; ^[4]; ^[5]; Engelbrecht, Francois A. ^[6]; ^[7]; ^[8]; ^[8]; Sylla, Mouhamadou B. ^[9]; ^[10]

European Commission, Ispra (Italy). Joint Research Centre
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS) (Spain); Univ. of Graz (Austria). Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change
King Abdulaziz Univ., Jeddah (Saudi Arabia). Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research; Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
Univ. of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg (South Africa). Global Change Inst.
African Inst. for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS), Kigali (Rwanda); Univ. of Accra (Ghana)
Univ. of Cape Town (South Africa)
African Inst. for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS), Kigali (Rwanda)
Univ. of Yaoundé (Cameroon). Lab. for Environmental Modelling and Atmospheric Physics (LEMAP)

In this work, we provide an assessment of future daily characteristics of African precipitation by explicitly comparing the results of large ensembles of global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORE) climate models, specifically highlighting the similarities and inconsistencies between them. Results for seasonal mean precipitation are not always consistent amongst ensembles: in particular, global models tend to project a wetter future compared to regional models, especially over the Eastern Sahel, Central and East Africa. However, results for other precipitation characteristics are more consistent. In general, all ensembles project an increase in maximum precipitation intensity during the wet season over all regions and emission scenarios (except the West Sahel for CORE) and a decrease in precipitation frequency (under the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5) especially over the West Sahel, the Atlas region, southern central Africa, East Africa and southern Africa. Depending on the season, the length of dry spells is projected to increase consistently by all ensembles and for most (if not all) models over southern Africa, the Ethiopian highlands and the Atlas region. Discrepancies exist between global and regional models on the projected change in precipitation characteristics over specific regions and seasons. For instance, over the Eastern Sahel in July–August most global models show an increase in precipitation frequency but regional models project a robust decrease. Global and regional models also project an opposite sign in the change of the length of dry spells. CORE results show a marked drying over the regions affected by the West Africa monsoon throughout the year, accompanied by a decrease in mean precipitation intensity between May and July that is not present in the other ensembles. This enhanced drying may be related to specific physical mechanisms that are better resolved by the higher resolution models and highlights the importance of a process-based evaluation of the mechanisms controlling precipitation over the region.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1822044

Journal Information:: Climate Dynamics, Journal Name: Climate Dynamics Vol. 57; ISSN 0930-7575

Publisher:: Springer-VerlagCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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