An assessment of tropical cyclones in North American $$\mathrm{CORDEX}$$ $$\mathrm{WRF}$$ simulations
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States); National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping (Sweden)
This work presents an assessment of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the 25 km and 50 km resolution reanalysis-forced and baseline and future (RCP8.5) global climate model (GCM) forced simulations produced for the North American branch of the international Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A set of complementary 12 km resolution simulations produced as a part of a different project is also included in this assessment. Before examining the projections from the GCM-driven simulations, the ability of the simulations to minimally produce a realistic spatial distribution of historical TC occurrence was assessed in simulations forced by reanalysis and the three different GCMs used herein. Then, projections for occurrence, TC related mean precipitation and precipitation intensity, storm duration, the intensity measured by minimum pressure and maximum wind speed, storm size, and translation speed were examined. Several of these characteristics show little to no change in the future in trend or in distribution across the ensemble. However, many simulations suggest a westward shift or increase in TC occurrence over the East Pacific basin and a decrease in occurrence over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Increases (decreases) in total storm-related precipitation are projected where TC occurrence increases (decreases). TC precipitation intensity is found to increase in all simulations over the East Pacific, but projections are mixed over the North Atlantic. Finally, the ensemble projects a distribution shift towards more intense TC over the East Pacific, and a shift toward faster translation speeds over the North Atlantic.
- Research Organization:
- Iowa State University, Ames, IA (United States); University of California, Davis, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC); US Department of Defense (USDOD)
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0016438; SC0016605
- OSTI ID:
- 1977702
- Journal Information:
- Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Name: Weather and Climate Extremes Journal Issue: C Vol. 34; ISSN 2212-0947
- Publisher:
- ElsevierCopyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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