Impact of climate change on mid-twenty-first century growing seasons in Africa

Cook, Kerry H.; Vizy, Edward K.

doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1324-1

Impact of climate change on mid-twenty-first century growing seasons in Africa

Journal Article · Fri Mar 02 04:00:00 EST 2012 · Climate Dynamics

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1324-1· OSTI ID:1038905

Cook, Kerry H. ^[1]; Vizy, Edward K.

The University of Texas at Austin, Austin TX

Changes in growing seasons for 2041-2060 across Africa are projected using a regional climate model at 90-km resolution, and confidence in the predictions is evaluated. The response is highly regional over West Africa, with decreases in growing season days up to 20% in the western Guinean coast and some regions to the east experiencing 5-10% increases. A longer growing season up to 30% in the central and eastern Sahel is predicted, with shorter seasons in parts of the western Sahel. In East Africa, the short rains (boreal fall) growing season is extended as the Indian Ocean warms, but anomalous midtropospheric moisture divergence and a northward shift of Sahel rainfall severely curtails the long rains (boreal spring) season. Enhanced rainfall in January and February increases the growing season in the Congo basin by 5-15% in association with enhanced southwesterly moisture transport from the tropical Atlantic. In Angola and the southern Congo basin, 40-80% reductions in austral spring growing season days are associated with reduced precipitation and increased evapotranspiration. Large simulated reductions in growing season over southeastern Africa are judged to be inaccurate because they occur due to a reduction in rainfall in winter which is over-produced in the model. Only small decreases in the actual growing season are simulated when evapotranspiration increases in the warmer climate. The continent-wide changes in growing season are primarily the result of increased evapotranspiration over the warmed land, changes in the intensity and seasonal cycle of the thermal low, and warming of the Indian Ocean.

Research Organization:: Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE SC Office of Biological and Environmental Research (SC-23)

DOE Contract Number:: FG02-08ER64610

OSTI ID:: 1038905

Report Number(s):: DOE/ER/64610-5

Journal Information:: Climate Dynamics, Journal Name: Climate Dynamics Journal Issue: 12 Vol. 39; ISSN 0930-7575

Publisher:: Springer-Verlag

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (44)

Towards the prediction of the East Africa short rains based on sea-surface temperature–atmosphere coupling Mutai, C. C.; Ward, M. N.; Colman, A. W. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 18, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199807)18:9<975::AID-JOC259>3.0.CO;2-U	journal	July 1998
An Approach toward a Rational Classification of Climate Thornthwaite, C. W. Geographical Review, Vol. 38, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.2307/210739	journal	January 1948
NCEP–DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2) Kanamitsu, Masao; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Woollen, Jack Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 83, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-83-11-1631	journal	November 2002
Spatial variation of crop yield response to climate change in East Africa Thornton, Philip K.; Jones, Peter G.; Alagarswamy, Gopal Global Environmental Change, Vol. 19, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.08.005	journal	February 2009
Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4 ^° C+ world Thornton, Philip K.; Jones, Peter G.; Ericksen, Polly J. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 369, Issue 1934 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0246	journal	January 2011
Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave Mlawer, Eli J.; Taubman, Steven J.; Brown, Patrick D. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 102, Issue D14 https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD00237	journal	July 1997
The South Indian Convergence Zone and Interannual Rainfall Variability over Southern Africa Cook, Kerry H. Journal of Climate, Vol. 13, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3789:TSICZA>2.0.CO;2	journal	November 2000
Subtropical Anticyclones and Summer Monsoons Rodwell, M. J.; Hoskins, B. J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 14, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<3192:SAASM>2.0.CO;2	journal	August 2001
The start of the growing season in Northern Nigeria Benoit, Patrick Agricultural Meteorology, Vol. 18, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/0002-1571(77)90042-5	journal	May 1977
Influence of the Amazon/Orinoco Plume on the summertime Atlantic climate Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry H. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 115, Issue D21 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014049	journal	November 2010
An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids Mitchell, Timothy D.; Jones, Philip D. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 25, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1181	journal	January 2005
Paramount Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the East African Short Rains: A CGCM Study Behera, Swadhin K.; Luo, Jing-Jia; Masson, Sebastien Journal of Climate, Vol. 18, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3541.1	journal	November 2005
A One-dimensional Time Dependent Cloud Model Chen, Shu-Hua; Sun, Wen-Yih Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, Vol. 80, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.80.99	journal	January 2002
Development and application of a mesoscale climate model for the tropics: Influence of sea surface temperature anomalies on the West African monsoon Vizy, Edward K. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 107, Issue D3 https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD000686	journal	January 2002
Predicting rainy season potential from the onset of rains in Southern Sahelian and Sudanian climatic zones of West Africa Sivakumar, M. V. K. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 42, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/0168-1923(88)90039-1	journal	April 1988
A Nonlinear Response of Sahel Rainfall to Atlantic Warming Neupane, Naresh; Cook, Kerry H. Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00475.1	journal	September 2013
Abrupt rainfall transitions over the Greater Horn of Africa: Observations and regional model simulations Riddle, Emily E.; Cook, Kerry H. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 113, Issue D15 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009202	journal	August 2008
Numerical Study of Convection Observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment Using a Mesoscale Two-Dimensional Model Dudhia, Jimy Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 46, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1989)046<3077:NSOCOD>2.0.CO;2	journal	October 1989
A New Vertical Diffusion Package with an Explicit Treatment of Entrainment Processes Hong, Song-You; Noh, Yign; Dudhia, Jimy Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 134, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3199.1	journal	September 2006
WRF/ARPEGE-CLIMAT simulated climate trends over West Africa Vigaud, N.; Roucou, P.; Fontaine, B. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 36, Issue 5-6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0707-4	journal	December 2009
Rainfall and the length of the growing season in Nigeria Odekunle, T. O. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 24, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1012	journal	March 2004
The mysteries of Sahel droughts Cook, Kerry H. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 1, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo320	journal	October 2008
Coupling an Advanced Land Surface–Hydrology Model with the Penn State–NCAR MM5 Modeling System. Part I: Model Implementation and Sensitivity Chen, Fei; Dudhia, Jimy Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 129, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0569:CAALSH>2.0.CO;2	journal	April 2001
Dynamics of the West African Monsoon Jump Hagos, Samson M.; Cook, Kerry H. Journal of Climate, Vol. 20, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1533.1	journal	November 2007
Effects of Twenty-First-Century Climate Change on the Amazon Rain Forest Cook, Kerry H.; Vizy, Edward K. Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1838.1	journal	February 2008
Global Precipitation: A 17-Year Monthly Analysis Based on Gauge Observations, Satellite Estimates, and Numerical Model Outputs Xie, Pingping; Arkin, Phillip A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 78, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2539:GPAYMA>2.0.CO;2	journal	November 1997
The Kain–Fritsch Convective Parameterization: An Update Kain, John S. Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 43, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2004)043<0170:TKCPAU>2.0.CO;2	journal	January 2004
Connections between the summer east African and Indian rainfall regimes Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry H. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 108, Issue D16 https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003452	journal	August 2003
Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy season over Ethiopia Segele, Z. T.; Lamb, P. J. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Vol. 89, Issue 1-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0127-x	journal	June 2005
Delayed Sahel rainfall and global seasonal cycle in a warmer climate Biasutti, Michela; Sobel, Adam H. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041303	journal	January 2009
Recurrent daily OLR patterns in the Southern Africa/Southwest Indian Ocean region, implications for South African rainfall and teleconnections Fauchereau, Nicolas; Pohl, B.; Reason, C. J. C. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 32, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0426-2	journal	June 2008
An Observational Study of the Relationship between Excessively Strong Short Rains in Coastal East Africa and Indian Ocean SST Black, Emily; Slingo, Julia; Sperber, Kenneth R. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 131, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<0074:AOSOTR>2.0.CO;2	journal	January 2003
Sub-Saharan Northern African climate at the end of the twenty-first century: forcing factors and climate change processes Patricola, C. M.; Cook, K. H. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 37, Issue 5-6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0907-y	journal	September 2010
A simple formula for estimating evaporation rates in various climates, using temperature data alone Linacre, Edward T. Agricultural Meteorology, Vol. 18, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1016/0002-1571(77)90007-3	journal	December 1977
The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979–Present) Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Chang, Alfred Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 4, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2	journal	December 2003
ENSO and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and their relationships with tropical temperate troughs over Mozambique and the Southwest Indian Ocean: ENSO AND INDIAN OCEAN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THEIR RELATIONSHIPS WITH TROPICAL Manhique, A. J.; Reason, C. J. C.; Rydberg, L. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 31, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2050	journal	December 2010
THE WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset: A New Era in Climate Change Research Meehl, Gerald A.; Covey, Curt; Delworth, Thomas Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 88, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383	journal	September 2007
Northern African climate at the end of the twenty-first century: an integrated application of regional and global climate models Patricola, Christina M.; Cook, Kerry H. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 35, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0623-7	journal	July 2009
Evaluation of Last Glacial Maximum sea surface temperature reconstructions through their influence on South American climate Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry H. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 110, Issue D11 https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005415	journal	June 2005
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system Dee, D. P.; Uppala, S. M.; Simmons, A. J. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 137, Issue 656 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828	journal	April 2011
Ocean Warming and Late-Twentieth-Century Sahel Drought and Recovery Hagos, Samson M.; Cook, Kerry H. Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2055.1	journal	August 2008
Projected Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation in Africa under Global Warming. Part II: East Africa Shongwe, Mxolisi E.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; van den Hurk, Bart Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI2883.1	journal	July 2011
The use of rainfall models in agricultural planning Stern, R. D.; Coe, R. Agricultural Meteorology, Vol. 26, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/0002-1571(82)90056-5	journal	March 1982
The TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA): Quasi-Global, Multiyear, Combined-Sensor Precipitation Estimates at Fine Scales Huffman, George J.; Bolvin, David T.; Nelkin, Eric J. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 8, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM560.1	journal	February 2007

Similar Records

Sub-Saharan Northern African climate at the end of the twenty-first century: forcing factors and climate change processes

Journal Article · Wed Sep 29 00:00:00 EDT 2010 · Climate Dynamics · OSTI ID:1038902

East African Monsoon as a Drawbridge for the Circumnavigation of Madden–Julian Oscillation Events

Journal Article · Thu Jun 15 20:00:00 EDT 2023 · Geophysical Research Letters · OSTI ID:1994848

Seasonal delay of Sahelian rainfall driven by an east–west contrast in radiative forcing in idealized CESM experiments

Journal Article · Sun Oct 06 20:00:00 EDT 2024 · Climate Dynamics · OSTI ID:2515579

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
58 GEOSCIENCES
Africa
climate change
climate change impacts
growing season
growing season days
potential evapotranspiration
precipitation
rainfall
regional climate model

Impact of climate change on mid-twenty-first century growing seasons in Africa

Citation Formats

References (44)

Similar Records

Related Subjects