Hydrological projections over the Upper Indus Basin at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C temperature increase

Kiyani, Rida S.; Ali, Shaukat; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Khan, Firdos; Muhammad, Sher; reboita, Michelle Simões; Farooqi, Abida

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147759

Hydrological projections over the Upper Indus Basin at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C temperature increase

Journal Article · Tue May 18 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Science of the Total Environment

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147759· OSTI ID:1817540

Kiyani, Rida S. ^[1]; Ali, Shaukat ^[2]; ^[3]; Khan, Firdos ^[4]; Muhammad, Sher ^[5]; reboita, Michelle Simões ^[6]; Farooqi, Abida ^[7]

Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad (Pakistan); Government of Pakistan, Islamabad (Pakistan). Ministry of Climate Change
Government of Pakistan, Islamabad (Pakistan). Ministry of Climate Change
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad (Pakistan)
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu (Nepal); Yunnan University, Kunming (China)
Federal University of Itajubá (Brazil)
Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad (Pakistan)

We analyse an ensemble of statistically downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) to investigate future water availability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) of Pakistan for the time horizons when the global and/or regional warming levels cross Paris Agreement (PA) targets. The GCMs data is obtained from the 5th Phase of Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Based on the five best performing GCMs, we note that global 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming thresholds are projected in 2026 and 2047 under RCP4.5 and 2022 and 3036 under RCP8.5 respectively while these thresholds are reached much earlier over Pakistan i.e. 2016 and 2030 under RCP4.5 and 2012 and 2025 under RCP8.5 respectively. Interestingly, the GCMs with the earliest emergence at the global scale are not necessarily the ones with the earliest emergence over Pakistan, highlighting spatial non-linearity in GCMs response. The emergence of 2.0 °C warming at global scale across 5 GCMs ranges from 2031 (CCSM4) to 2049 (NorESM) under RCP8.5. Precipitation generally exhibits a progressive increasing trend with stronger changes at higher warming or radiative forcing levels. Hydrological simulations representing the historical, 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global and region warming time horizons indicate a robust but seasonally varying increase in the inflows. The highest inflows in the baseline and future are witnessed in July. However, the highest future increase in inflows is projected in October under RCP4.5 (37.99% and 65.11% at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C) and in April under RCP8.5 (37% and 62.05% at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C). These hydrological changes are driven by increases in the snow and glacial melt contribution, which are more pronounced at 2.0 °C warming level. These findings should help for effective water management in Pakistan over the coming decades.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1817540

Journal Information:: Science of the Total Environment, Journal Name: Science of the Total Environment Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 788; ISSN 0048-9697

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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