skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Spatial–temporal changes in runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention under 1.5 and 2°C warming scenarios across China

Abstract

The Paris Agreement set a long-term temperature goal of holding the global average temperature increase to below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, pursuing efforts to limit this to 1.5 °C; it is therefore important to understand the impacts of climate change under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios for climate adaptation and mitigation. Here, climate scenarios from four global circulation models (GCMs) for the baseline (2006–2015), 1.5, and 2.0 °C warming scenarios (2106–2115) were used to drive the validated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model to investigate the impacts of global warming on runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention (TEWR) across China at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. This study applied ensemble projections from multiple GCMs to provide more comprehensive and robust results.

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3]
  1. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Univ. of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China)
  2. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Univ. of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Natural Resources Inst. Finland (Luke), Helsinki (Finland)
  3. Information Center of Yellow River Conservancy Commission, Zhengzhou (China)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1544105
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Earth System Dynamics (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Geology

Citation Formats

Zhai, Ran, Tao, Fulu, and Xu, Zhihui. Spatial–temporal changes in runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention under 1.5 and 2°C warming scenarios across China. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.5194/esd-9-717-2018.
Zhai, Ran, Tao, Fulu, & Xu, Zhihui. Spatial–temporal changes in runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention under 1.5 and 2°C warming scenarios across China. United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-717-2018
Zhai, Ran, Tao, Fulu, and Xu, Zhihui. Thu . "Spatial–temporal changes in runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention under 1.5 and 2°C warming scenarios across China". United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-717-2018. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1544105.
@article{osti_1544105,
title = {Spatial–temporal changes in runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention under 1.5 and 2°C warming scenarios across China},
author = {Zhai, Ran and Tao, Fulu and Xu, Zhihui},
abstractNote = {The Paris Agreement set a long-term temperature goal of holding the global average temperature increase to below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, pursuing efforts to limit this to 1.5 °C; it is therefore important to understand the impacts of climate change under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios for climate adaptation and mitigation. Here, climate scenarios from four global circulation models (GCMs) for the baseline (2006–2015), 1.5, and 2.0 °C warming scenarios (2106–2115) were used to drive the validated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model to investigate the impacts of global warming on runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention (TEWR) across China at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. This study applied ensemble projections from multiple GCMs to provide more comprehensive and robust results.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-9-717-2018},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1544105}, journal = {Earth System Dynamics (Online)},
issn = {2190-4987},
number = 2,
volume = 9,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {6}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 2 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Save / Share:

Works referenced in this record:

A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models
journal, January 1994


A large-scale horizontal routing model to be coupled to land surface parametrization schemes
journal, October 1996


Regional Parameter Estimation of the VIC Land Surface Model: Methodology and Application to River Basins in China
journal, June 2007


The ARNO rainfall—runoff model
journal, February 1996


Hydrological projections of climate change scenarios over the 3H region of China: A VIC model assessment: HYDROLOGICAL PROJECTIONS OVER THE 3H
journal, June 2012


Projected changes in mean and interannual variability of surface water over continental China
journal, December 2014


Impacts of climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on streamflow in the Huangnizhuang catchment
journal, January 2015


Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal
journal, July 2016


Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)
journal, January 2017


Assessing water resources in China using PRECIS projections and a VIC model
journal, January 2012


Simulating the hydrological responses to climate change of the Xiang River basin, China
journal, April 2015


Dominant climatic factors driving annual runoff changes at the catchment scale across China
journal, January 2016


River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles
journal, April 1970


Climatic and anthropogenic factors affecting river discharge to the global ocean, 1951–2000
journal, June 2008


Strengthening protected areas for biodiversity and ecosystem services in China
journal, January 2017


Impacts of climate change on the Qingjiang Watershed’s runoff change trend in China
journal, September 2011


Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design
journal, January 2017


The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale
journal, April 2013


Deducing Climatic Elasticity to Assess Projected Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Change across China: Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow
journal, October 2017


Impacts of climate change on streamflows under RCP scenarios: A case study in Xin River Basin, China
journal, September 2016


One-dimensional statistical dynamic representation of subgrid spatial variability of precipitation in the two-layer variable infiltration capacity model
journal, September 1996


Improvements in ecosystem services from investments in natural capital
journal, June 2016


A new surface runoff parameterization with subgrid-scale soil heterogeneity for land surface models
journal, November 2001


Driving forces and their effects on water conservation services in forest ecosystems in China
journal, April 2017


Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Review and synthesis
journal, March 2006


The impact of climate change on runoff in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau
journal, November 2013


The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China
journal, September 2010


Runoff sensitivity over Asia: Role of climate variables and initial soil conditions
journal, February 2017