Source sector and fuel contributions to ambient PM2.5 and attributable mortality across multiple spatial scales

McDuffie, Erin E.; Martin, Randall V.; Spadaro, Joseph V.; Burnett, Richard; Smith, Steven J.; O’Rourke, Patrick; Hammer, Melanie S.; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Bindle, Liam; Shah, Viral; Jaeglé, Lyatt; Luo, Gan; Yu, Fangqun; Adeniran, Jamiu A.; Lin, Jintai; Brauer, Michael

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-23853-y

Source sector and fuel contributions to ambient PM_2.5 and attributable mortality across multiple spatial scales

Journal Article · Mon Jun 14 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23853-y· OSTI ID:1814474

^[1]; ^[1]; Spadaro, Joseph V. ^[2]; Burnett, Richard ^[3]; ^[4]; O’Rourke, Patrick ^[4]; Hammer, Melanie S. ^[1]; van Donkelaar, Aaron ^[1]; ^[1]; Shah, Viral ^[3]; Jaeglé, Lyatt ^[3]; Luo, Gan ^[5]; ^[5]; Adeniran, Jamiu A. ^[6]; ^[6]; ^[7]

Washington Univ., St. Louis, MO (United States); Dalhousie Univ., Halifax, NS (Canada)
Spadaro Environmental Research Consultants (SERC), Philadelphia, PA (United States)
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Univ. at Albany, NY (United States)
Peking Univ., Beijing (China)
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Univ. of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC (Canada)

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is the world’s leading environmental health risk factor. Reducing the PM_2.5 disease burden requires specific strategies that target dominant sources across multiple spatial scales. We provide a contemporary and comprehensive evaluation of sector- and fuel-specific contributions to this disease burden across 21 regions, 204 countries, and 200 sub-national areas by integrating 24 global atmospheric chemistry-transport model sensitivity simulations, high-resolution satellite-derived PM_2.5 exposure estimates, and disease-specific concentration response relationships. Globally, 1.05 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.74–1.36) million deaths were avoidable in 2017 by eliminating fossil-fuel combustion (27.3% of the total PM_2.5 burden), with coal contributing to over half. Other dominant global sources included residential (0.74 [0.52–0.95] million deaths; 19.2%), industrial (0.45 [0.32–0.58] million deaths; 11.7%), and energy (0.39 [0.28–0.51] million deaths; 10.2%) sectors. Our results show that regions with large anthropogenic contributions generally had the highest attributable deaths, suggesting substantial health benefits from replacing traditional energy sources.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; USEPA

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1814474

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--158393

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 12; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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