Mortality attributable to PM2.5 from wildland fires in California from 2008 to 2018

Connolly, Rachel; Marlier, Miriam E.; Garcia-Gonzales, Diane A.; Wilkins, Joseph; Su, Jason; Bekker, Claire; Jung, Jihoon; Bonilla, Eimy; Burnett, Richard T.; Zhu, Yifang; Jerrett, Michael

doi:10.1126/sciadv.adl1252

Mortality attributable to PM_2.5 from wildland fires in California from 2008 to 2018

Journal Article · Fri Jun 07 00:00:00 EDT 2024 · Science Advances

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl1252· OSTI ID:2471900

^[1]; ^[2]; Garcia-Gonzales, Diane A. ^[2]; ^[3]; ^[4]; Bekker, Claire ^[2]; ^[5]; Bonilla, Eimy ^[3]; ^[6]; ^[2]; ^[2]

University of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
University of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
Howard University, Washington, DC (United States)
University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, NC (United States)
University of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Health Canada, Ottawa (Canada)

In California, wildfire risk and severity have grown substantially in the last several decades. Research has characterized extensive adverse health impacts from exposure to wildfire-attributable fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), but few studies have quantified long-term outcomes, and none have used a wildfire-specific chronic dose-response mortality coefficient. Here, we quantified the mortality burden for PM_2.5 exposure from California fires from 2008 to 2018 using Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system wildland fire PM_2.5 estimates. We used a concentration-response function for PM_2.5, applying ZIP code–level mortality data and an estimated wildfire-specific dose-response coefficient accounting for the likely toxicity of wildfire smoke. We estimate a total of 52,480 to 55,710 premature deaths are attributable to wildland fire PM_2.5 over the 11-year period with respect to two exposure scenarios, equating to an economic impact of $$\$$432$ to $$\$$456$ billion. These findings extend evidence on climate-related health impacts, suggesting that wildfires account for a greater mortality and economic burden than indicated by earlier studies.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Howard University, Washington, DC (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: California Air Resources Board; National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0023511

OSTI ID:: 2471900

Journal Information:: Science Advances, Journal Name: Science Advances Journal Issue: 23 Vol. 10; ISSN 2375-2548

Publisher:: AAASCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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